Harvard University in the US: "China Will Beat the US Within 10 Years" [Reading Science]

Belper Institute for International Scientific Affairs Predicts China's Victory in Technology Hegemony Competition

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] As the technological hegemony competition between the United States and China has intensified in the 21st century, Harvard University, one of the top research and development universities in the U.S., has attracted attention by releasing a report forecasting that China will surpass the U.S. within 10 years.

According to the Ministry of Science and ICT on the 29th, Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs released a report titled "The Great Rival - China and the United States in the 21st Century" on the 7th of last month, containing such projections.

According to the report, China has rapidly caught up with the U.S. over the past 20 years and is expected to replace or surpass the U.S. within 10 years. By sector, artificial intelligence (AI) is anticipated to have the greatest economic and security impact over the next decade. China has already emerged as a competitor to the U.S. in all areas including manufacturing, financial market testing, research papers, patents, and international competitive achievements. Regarding next-generation mobile communication technology 5G, the U.S. Defense Innovation Board recently forecasted that China is leading in all indicators and will replicate the dominance the U.S. had in the 4G market in the 5G market.

In quantum information science (QIS), China has surpassed the U.S. in patent numbers through investments more than four times those of the U.S. in key technology sectors such as quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing. 52% of global patents are made in China. Although the U.S. still maintains an advantage in semiconductors, China has emerged as a massive market accounting for 60% of global semiconductor consumption as of 2019. Its production capacity has already surpassed the U.S. (12%) with a 15% share.

In the bio sector, which has gained more attention due to infectious disease outbreaks and population aging, China recently ranked second worldwide in the life sciences research index compiled by Nature, surpassing the UK and Germany, and recorded a 9% increase in papers, fiercely competing with the U.S. In clean energy technologies such as solar power and hydrogen, China has already established a monopolistic position in future supply chains as a major manufacturer, consumer, and exporter. The U.S. and Europe are already dependent on China for climate change response.

The report evaluated that China's leap forward is the result of massive investment, talent cultivation, R&D ecosystem, and national policies. In fact, in 2000, China's annual R&D investment was only $30 billion, while the U.S. invested $270 billion, nine times more. However, by 2020, China nearly caught up with the U.S., investing $580 billion compared to the U.S.'s $640 billion. China is aggressively expanding R&D investment and is expected to surpass the U.S. within 10 years.

On the other hand, although the U.S. possesses major research universities and institutions that sweep Nobel Prizes, the quality of primary and secondary education is declining, potentially destabilizing talent supply. Additionally, a culture prioritizing individual freedom over security, companies reluctant to cooperate with security agencies, public policies negative toward talent hiring and immigration, regulations hindering big data utilization and construction, government R&D budget cuts, and antitrust regulations are also unfavorable factors for the U.S.

The report stated, "The U.S. has led technological innovation for the past 50 years and still maintains advantages in several technology sectors," but also pointed out, "China is challenging the U.S. in promising 21st-century technology sectors, which signals significant changes beyond intelligence agencies and defense to the economic and political spheres."