[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] Amid North Korea's six missile launches since the beginning of the year, attention is focused on whether North Korea will continue its military demonstrations around February 16, the 80th anniversary of Kim Jong-il's birth (Kwangmyongsong Festival). Experts are concerned that there may be a large-scale military parade or the unveiling and test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
On the 28th, the Korean Central News Agency reported, "The National Defense Science Institute conducted test launches on January 25 and 27 to renew the long-range cruise missile system and to verify the operational warhead power of the ground-to-ground (surface-to-surface) tactical guided missile, respectively."
It added, "The two launched tactical guided missiles precisely struck the target island, and it was confirmed that the explosive power of the operational warhead met the design requirements."
This recent launch marks North Korea's sixth military demonstration since the new year. Starting with a ballistic missile launch on January 5 in Jagang Province, North Korea launched one missile each on the 11th and 14th, two on the 17th, two cruise missiles on the 25th, and two short-range ballistic missiles on the 27th.
With the Biden administration responding to North Korea's missile launches through UN Security Council sanctions and its own sanctions, North Korea appears to be pressuring the U.S. with missile launches based on the principle of "strong against strong, preemptive against preemptive." Notably, despite being just a week away from the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics (February 4), North Korea carried out military provocations, suggesting a high likelihood of tacit approval from China.
Considering North Korea-China relations, there had been expectations that North Korea would refrain from military provocations during the Beijing Winter Olympics. However, with the Kwangmyongsong Festival, one of the two major holidays North Korea values alongside the Day of the Sun (Kim Il-sung's birthday), approaching, it seems likely that military provocations will continue. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, predicted, "It will proceed with steps such as unveiling or test launching ICBMs during military parades on the Kwangmyongsong Festival and the Day of the Sun."
Jung Sung-jang, director of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, forecasted, "North Korea is likely to hold a large-scale military parade and showcase strategic weapons on the 80th anniversary of Kim Jong-il's birth (February 16), hold a parade on the 110th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth (April 15), launch satellite rockets, conduct test launches of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (Pukguksong-4 and Pukguksong-5), resume nuclear activities at Yongbyon, restore the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, and carry out large solid-fuel engine combustion tests at the Dongchang-ri missile test site."
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