Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl in a neck-and-neck race by 1%p... NBS "Lee 35%, Yoon 34%, Ahn 10%"

Election Probability "Lee 38%, Yoon 37%, Ahn 2%"

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Yoon Seok-youl, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, continue to show a neck-and-neck race. Lee is ahead of Yoon by 1 percentage point.

In the four-way hypothetical contest of the National Barometer Survey (NBS) conducted by Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research from the 24th to the 26th among 1,000 men and women nationwide aged 18 and over, Lee received 35%, and Yoon received 34%. Both Lee and Yoon’s approval ratings rose by 1 percentage point compared to last week’s survey. Because of this, the gap between the two candidates’ approval ratings continued to be within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level) following last week’s close contest.

Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party, recorded 10%, down 2 percentage points from last week’s survey, and Sim Sang-jung, the presidential candidate of the Justice Party, recorded 2%, down 1 percentage point.

When asked about the likelihood of winning the presidential election rather than the preferred candidate, Lee was at 38%, Yoon at 37%, and Ahn at 2%. Lee’s winning prospects fell by 2 percentage points compared to the previous survey, while Yoon’s rose by 3 percentage points. Recent polling trends show that Lee’s winning prospects are declining, whereas Yoon’s are on the rise.

There was also an analysis that TV debates will have a significant impact on the upcoming presidential election. When asked whether TV debates would influence the election results, 33% of voters said they might change their preferred candidate. In particular, 68% of those in their 20s said they might change their preferred candidate. In contrast, only 20% of those in their 60s and 10% of those aged 70 and over said they would change their preferred candidate, showing different attitudes by generation.

In a survey asking who would do better in the field of social welfare, Lee received 35%, Yoon 18%, Ahn 13%, and Sim 10%.

For more details, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.