[Choi Min-gyu's Baseball Prism] Why Are Soccer Winning Goals and Baseball Winning Runs Different?

Introduction of 'Win RBI' in MLB in the 1980s to Attract Interest
Far from a 'Decisive Hit,' Abolished... Now Used Conventionally by the Media

Forward Hwang Ui-jo (Bordeaux), who plays in the French Ligue 1, scored a hat-trick in the home match against Strasbourg on the 23rd (Korean time). The scoreline of this match is as follows.

1-0 Hwang Ui-jo (17’), 2-0 Albert Elis (21’), 3-0 Hwang Ui-jo (39’), 3-1 Kevin Gameiro (43’), 3-2 Kevin Gameiro (57’), 4-2 Hwang Ui-jo (90’), 4-3 Abdul Majeed Waris (90+6’)

At what minute was the winning goal scored in this match? If you answer ‘17 minutes,’ you are likely a baseball fan. The correct answer is ‘90 minutes.’

According to the official soccer scoring rules published by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), the winning goal is awarded to the goal that puts the team one point ahead of the opponent’s final score. This match ended with Bordeaux’s 4-3 victory. Therefore, Bordeaux’s fourth goal and Hwang Ui-jo’s third goal is the winning goal. The same method is used not only in soccer but also in ice hockey.

On the other hand, in baseball, the winning run refers to the run that creates a lead maintained until the end of the game. In baseball terms, Hwang Ui-jo’s 17th-minute opening goal would be the winning run. The concept of the winning run was created when Major League Baseball added a new statistical category called ‘winning RBI’ to the official records in 1980. It is a record given to the batter who earns the winning run through hits, home runs, walks, infield grounders, etc.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

There is a reason why the winning run is defined differently from soccer and other sports. There was already a personal record category containing the team record ‘win’ before the winning RBI was introduced. Henry Chadwick, a journalist known as the ‘father of baseball statistics,’ devised the concept of the ‘winning pitcher’ in 1884.

At first, the pitcher who pitched more innings simply earned the win record. Later, regardless of innings, the official scorer decided the winning pitcher was the one who ‘pitched effectively.’ The legendary home run king Babe Ruth pitched once and earned one win in his first year after transferring to the New York Yankees in 1920. In a 9-inning game that the Yankees won 14-7, he started as a pitcher but only pitched 4 innings.

From 1950, the current rules have been applied. The starting pitcher earns the win record under the conditions of ① ‘pitching at least 5 innings’ and ② ‘leaving the game while the team is leading, and the lead is maintained without a tie or reversal until the end.’ The same applied when the winning RBI was introduced in 1980. Therefore, the soccer-style final score-based method became problematic.

Assuming the starting pitcher finished pitching the top of the 5th inning with a 5-0 lead and was pulled out, and the game ended with a 6-5 victory. In soccer terms, the 6th run scored after the starting pitcher left is the winning RBI. The ‘winning pitcher’ would have left the mound before the run that decided the win was scored. Something seems off. For this reason, it is presumed that the winning RBI is based on the run that created a lead maintained until the end of the game.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The first winning RBI record was made on April 9, 1980, in the season opener between the Cincinnati Reds and the Atlanta Braves. That year, the season started late due to an 8-day players’ union strike. The game ended with Cincinnati’s 9-0 victory. The fourth batter, George Foster, who hit a double with one out and runners on first and second in the bottom of the 1st inning, became the first player to earn a winning RBI.

However, the new record was unpopular. Major League Baseball introduced the winning RBI to attract baseball fans’ interest. Fans love ‘clutch hitting,’ which is hitting a decisive blow at a critical moment. The winning RBI was an award for clutch hitting. Foster’s first winning RBI was far from the clutch hitting that fans and players knew.

Based on 178,873 Major League games, a solo home run by the leadoff batter in the top of the 1st inning raises the visiting team’s expected winning percentage from 45.93% to 56.43%, an increase of 10.50 percentage points. If a grand slam home run is hit with no outs in the top of the 6th inning, the expected winning percentage rises from 65.41% to 93.21%, an increase of 27.80 percentage points. Both conventionally and statistically, a grand slam in the top of the 5th inning is closer to clutch hitting. However, the winning RBI record is given to the solo home run in the top of the 1st inning.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Eventually, Major League Baseball removed the controversial winning RBI from the official records after 1988. Japanese and Korean professional baseball leagues, which followed Major League Baseball, also abolished the winning RBI in 1989 and 1990, respectively. The media still habitually use the term ‘game-winning hit,’ which is similar to winning RBI.

Today’s baseball statistics experts have more accurate means to identify clutch hitting than the winning RBI. However, most of them hold the view that ‘clutch hitting does not exist.’ Walk-off home runs in the bottom of the 9th inning certainly exist. Some players have hit multiple walk-off home runs in a single season. But the ability to consistently hit well at decisive moments generally does not exist, according to various baseball statistical studies.

The thrilling success experience like a walk-off home run is not limited to baseball stadiums. Whether individual or organizational, it is easy to believe that one success will lead to continuous success. People tend to selectively accept information that fits their beliefs (confirmation bias) and get stuck in path dependency by insisting on a method that succeeded once. The highlight of success is so intense that the presence of teammates is sometimes forgotten.

At least in baseball, the existence of the ability to consistently succeed at important timings is unclear. This is not just the opinion of statistical experts. When the greatest hitter in Korean professional baseball history, Lee Seung-yeop, was asked whether clutch hitting is skill or luck, he answered, ‘I think it’s luck.’

Director, Korea Baseball Society