Russia, Is the Invasion of Ukraine Imminent? "Invasion Possible Even During Beijing Winter Olympics"

Blinken "Georgia Invasion Also During 2008 Beijing Olympics"
Criticism That Diplomatic Response Alone Is Insufficient Amid Differences Over Sanctions on Russia

On the 21st (local time), a photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin, used by the Ukrainian government forces for shooting practice, was left in a government trench in Zolote, Luhansk region, covered with snow. Bullet marks are clearly visible all over the snow-covered photo of President Putin's face. As tensions around Ukraine escalate, U.S. President Joe Biden is reportedly set to decide soon on sending additional troops to Eastern European NATO member countries. Zolote (Ukraine) = AFP·Yonhap News Agency

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As concerns grow that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is imminent, the diplomatic and crisis management capabilities of the Joe Biden administration are expected to face a critical test once again.

The U.S. government has warned that it will pressure Russia alongside European allies centered around the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but there are already signs of discord with Germany, indicating difficulties in maintaining unity. Experts both inside and outside the U.S. point out that diplomatic solutions and economic sanctions alone may not be sufficient to deter Russia's invasion.

On the 23rd (local time), U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an interview with CBS, was asked whether the Beijing Winter Olympics would influence Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He responded, "I don't think so. Russia invaded Georgia during the 2008 Beijing Olympics," adding, "Russia will make invasion decisions based on President Putin's calculations of what is beneficial."

Secretary Blinken reiterated that Russia's invasion is imminent, strongly warning, "If even a single Russian soldier crosses the Ukrainian border to attack, it will trigger a swift, severe, and unified response from the U.S. and Europe."

Following the security talks between the U.S. and Russia on the 21st, which ended without any agreement, the atmosphere of war in Ukraine is reportedly intensifying. According to the British BBC, Ukraine has mobilized 250,000 troops, while Russia has gathered 125,000 troops along the eastern border with Ukraine.

Over the past weekend, weapons supported by the U.S. and its allies have been arriving in Ukraine one after another. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, weapons weighing 90 tons, including anti-tank weapons and missiles worth $200 million (approximately 239 billion KRW) promised by the U.S. last month, arrived in Ukraine by air and land the day before.

However, concerns are emerging that disagreements within the U.S. over the key countermeasure of economic sanctions to deter Russia's invasion may weaken unity with allied countries. In an interview with CNN, Secretary Blinken explained, "Sanctions against Russia should not be imposed immediately," adding, "The purpose of sanctions is to deter Russia's aggression, so if they are imposed now, they lose their deterrent effect."

In response, U.S. Republican Senator Joni Ernst emphasized at a press conference, "The Biden administration is sticking only to diplomatic dialogue principles with Russia," and stressed, "Russian President Vladimir Putin is an adversary who can only be dealt with through strength and power, requiring firm resolve."

There are also criticisms that U.S. military support and diplomatic solutions for Ukraine are already insufficient. Jim Townsend, a former senior U.S. Department of Defense official and security expert at the think tank Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told The New York Times, "It is too late to restrain Putin, and if Russia invades Ukraine within weeks, the U.S. military will need to deploy far more troops than now," adding, "The U.S. and Western Europe will have to rebuild armed alliances once again."