"'Youth Outflow → Regional Crisis' Is True, but Regional Economic Recovery Is Not Easy Even If Youth Return"

Professor Jo Young-tae: "Regional crises relate not only to population but also to changes in the industrial ecosystem"

Professor Cho Young-tae, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University

[Asia Economy Reporter Choi Dae-yeol] "Today's youth (born 2002?2013), who will become young adults in 15 years, number between 420,000 and 490,000 in a single age group. Even if government efforts result in 50% of the total youth population living in regions 15 years from now, this number will still be smaller than the current regional youth population (240,000 to 280,000)."

This was stated by demographer Professor Cho Young-tae of Seoul National University Graduate School of Public Health during a webinar hosted by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry on the 21st. In his presentation titled "The Present and Future of Regional Economy Through the Lens of Demography," Professor Cho argued, "If the regional industrial ecosystem does not change, it will become increasingly difficult to capture the hearts of young people, and youth outflow will accelerate, continuing the difficulties of the regional economy."

Professor Cho diagnosed, "Currently, 56% of young adults aged 25 to 34 are concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan area," adding, "Including young people who have not changed their resident registration, the concentration in the metropolitan area reaches nearly 60%, which is very serious." He continued, "Due to massive budget investments and support policies by the central government and local governments, there is a possibility that the concentration of youth in the metropolitan area may ease and a return to the regions may occur," but noted, "Although impossible at present, assuming this phenomenon happens in 10 years, there is another problem."

The government has decided to invest 1 trillion won annually for 10 years starting this year in 86 regions designated as extinction-prone areas to prevent regional extinction caused by aging and youth outflow, but problems remain. Professor Cho points out that if regional companies, which play a major role in creating local jobs, fail to keep pace with changes in the industrial ecosystem, efforts to attract youth may amount to empty slogans.

Professor Cho stated, "It is true that youth outflow leads to a decline in regional vitality and lowers the vitality of the regional economy," but argued, "However, finding the cause of regional economic stagnation solely in youth outflow will not lead to a complete solution." He added, "While it can be said that regional economic difficulties are due to youth outflow, it is not necessarily true that the regional economy will revive just because young people return to the region," and pointed out, "It is necessary to examine whether the loss of vitality in the regional economy is not due to demographic changes but rather because regional industries have failed to properly adapt to the rapidly changing industrial ecosystem."

He emphasized, "I ask the question, 'Is the crisis of the regional economy caused not by an external factor like population but by an internal factor such as the regional industry itself?'" and stressed, "The regional industrial ecosystem must change first." He added, "While policy efforts by the central and local governments are important for revitalizing the regional economy, above all, the leading role of regional companies is even more crucial."