[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Full-Scale Provocation Expected in 'March'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] There is an analysis that North Korea may take action to withdraw its moratorium on nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches after the Beijing Olympics.

A government official said, "There are signs that North Korea is currently preparing a military parade," adding, "We are closely monitoring when and how the parade will be conducted."

The military is currently assessing how the parade will be conducted, as North Korea is in the early preparation stage. Within the military, it is considered highly likely that the parade will be held around the 80th anniversary of Kim Jong-il's birthday (February 16). North Korea has previously held three consecutive nighttime military parades: the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party founding (October 2020), the 8th Workers' Party Congress (January 2021), and the 75th anniversary parade again (September 2021).

The critical period is March and April, after the Beijing Olympics. In March, a presidential election is scheduled, and in April, South Korea-US joint military exercises will take place. Following that is the 110th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birthday (April 15). Around this time, North Korea may unveil strategic weapons to provoke the United States.

The strategic weapons are likely related to additional military demonstrations connected to the "five major tasks" mentioned at North Korea's party congress last January. The five major tasks North Korea announced include hypersonic missiles, super-large nuclear warheads, improving the 15,000 km strike accuracy, development of underwater and ground solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and possession of nuclear submarines and underwater-launched nuclear strategic weapons.

South Korea and the US usually conduct the first half joint command post exercise in March, but this year, considering the presidential election on March 9, they are reportedly discussing postponing it to April. The spreading COVID-19 situation is also said to have influenced this decision.

Earlier, the South Korea-US defense ministers agreed at the 53rd Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) on the 2nd of last month to conduct two joint command post exercises in the first and second halves of this year and to carry out a Full Operational Capability (FOC) evaluation.

Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said, "There is a possibility that North Korea will conduct other strategic weapon launches, including nuclear missile tests, by February 16 or at the latest by April 15 to demonstrate its presence," adding, "This means a return to a hair-trigger situation."