Lee Jae-gap "Confirmed cases may reach 90,000 by the end of February... Omicron impact already present"

"UK may experience in 3-6 months what the US has faced over 2 years"

Professor Lee Jae-gap, Department of Infectious Diseases, Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital / Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Juhyung] Professor Lee Jaegab, an infectious disease specialist at Hallym University Gangnam Sacred Heart Hospital, predicted that the number of new COVID-19 cases could rise to the 90,000 range by the end of February due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant.

In an interview on the 19th with TBS Traffic Broadcasting's "Kim Eo-jun's News Factory," Professor Lee said, "If the Omicron variant continues to spread at the current rate, the number of confirmed cases is likely to keep increasing," adding, "If only the Delta variant had been influencing the situation, social distancing measures should have reduced the number of confirmed cases to around 2,000, but the stagnation at the 4,000 level last week already indicates the impact of Omicron."

He continued, "The number of confirmed cases started to increase again from the weekend, and the weekend infection reproduction number (R0) exceeded 1." R0 is an index representing the average number of secondary infections caused by one new confirmed case. Generally, if R0 exceeds 1, it is interpreted that the daily number of confirmed cases is on an increasing trend again.

Professor Lee expressed concern, saying, "In Korea, many people who have not been vaccinated have never contracted COVID-19, so when the highly transmissible Omicron variant spreads, there is a risk of spread centered on vaccinated individuals, along with breakthrough infection cases among them." He added, "According to simulation data, the number could exceed 20,000 by mid-February, and in the worst-case scenario, it could rise to 90,000 by late February to early March."

When asked whether there is a possibility of pursuing a return to normal life despite the increase in confirmed cases, as seen in the recent case of the UK easing quarantine guidelines again, he replied, "It is difficult to compare the situations in the UK and Korea. If we proceed with quarantine measures like the UK, we could experience in 3 to 6 months what the UK and the US have gone through over the past two years." Compared to Western countries like the US and UK, Korea has a larger number of uninfected people, meaning fewer people with antibodies. Therefore, prematurely easing quarantine guidelines could risk a 'compressed spread.'

Professor Lee emphasized, "We must continue to suppress the number of confirmed cases through the vaccine pass and social distancing while moving toward a return to normal life."

Son Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, is holding a regular non-face-to-face briefing of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters for COVID-19 at the Government Sejong Complex on the 19th. / Photo by Yonhap News

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on the 19th, the number of new confirmed cases exceeded 5,000 for the first time in 20 days, reaching 5,805. This is an increase of 1,734 cases compared to the previous day, the 18th.

Son Youngrae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Ministry of Health and Welfare's Central Accident Response Headquarters, explained at a regular briefing that "the regional spread of Omicron has become full-scale."

However, he added, "Since the severity and mortality rates of Omicron are lower than those of Delta, we plan to shift the variant case management system," and "As we transition to the Omicron response system, we are discussing with medical institutions various methods for participation by local clinics and the treatment process, in addition to the currently involved hospital-level treatment."

Earlier, the government announced in the "Omicron Spread Response Strategy" on the 14th that if the number of new confirmed cases exceeds 5,000 during this week, it will be regarded as a sign that Omicron is becoming the dominant variant, and the preparation phase will begin.

If the number exceeds 7,000, the response phase will be initiated, implementing measures such as prioritizing PCR testing and epidemiological investigations, expanding rapid antigen testing at hospital and clinic levels, and lifting restrictions on overseas arrivals.