COVID-19 Victims Are 3 to 4 Times More Than Official Statistics Indicate [Reading Science]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] An analysis has emerged suggesting that the number of people who died due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which began in early 2020, is around 20 million?at least 3 to 4 times higher than the official count.

According to the international academic journal Nature on the 19th, the number of deaths from COVID-19 surpassed 5 million based on the World Health Organization (WHO) official tally as of November 1 last year, and it is estimated to have exceeded 6 million this month. In this regard, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle, USA, which compiles daily death counts using its own statistical program, reported that as of the 19th, 6,326,655 people worldwide have died. The average daily death toll is about 5,913.

The problem is that more than 100 countries worldwide either do not provide reliable statistics on expected or actual death counts or fail to release them in a timely manner. China’s reporting of fewer than 5,000 total deaths to date is a representative example.

The actual number of deaths worldwide is estimated to be much higher. The IHME reports, based on its own model, that as of this date, 13,410,711 people have died. Additionally, the UK’s The Economist recently announced results from its own machine learning system estimating COVID-19 deaths to be at least 12 million to 22 million?2 to 4 times higher than official counts. For example, The Economist estimated that at least 750,000 people died from COVID-19 in China. Although India’s official government statistics report fewer than 500,000 deaths, it is estimated that between 3 million and 5 million people have died.

A recent paper published by a research team at the University of T?bingen in Germany provides even more detailed findings. The team analyzed excess mortality statistics from 116 countries worldwide from 2015 through last year. They calculated whether the increase in deaths compared to previous years was due to war, natural disasters, or likely COVID-19. The results showed that the number of victims was much higher than official counts. For example, Russia reported 300,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of last year, but the actual number is predicted to exceed 1 million. Despite the official count nearing 800,000 deaths, the US is believed to have well over 900,000 actual deaths. The research team cited four countries included in their statistical model. During the pandemic, these four countries accounted for 4.1 million deaths (10% of the global total), but the team concluded that 6.5 million deaths (16% of the global total)?1.6 times more?were likely caused by COVID-19 in these countries.

A demographer told Nature, "Because we live in modern society, I thought we would know how many people died (due to COVID-19), but that is not the case at all," adding, "It is a sad reality for demographers, including myself."