[2 Years of COVID-19] "If We Overcome the Omicron Crisis, COVID-19 Can Be Managed Like the Flu"

Two Years of COVID-19 Pandemic

Variants Shatter End-of-Pandemic Hopes
Response with Vaccines and Oral Treatments

Risk Reduced to Endemic Level
Periodic Outbreaks Expected

On the 18th, the temporary screening clinic in front of Seoul City Hall is bustling with citizens. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporters Chunhee Lee and Daehyun Kim] On January 20, 2020, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (currently the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency) announced the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in South Korea. In January last year, expectations grew that COVID-19 would end with the introduction of vaccines, but those hopes quickly faded with the influx of the Delta variant. Now, a year later, the threat of Omicron is intensifying. However, there is hopeful analysis that if oral therapeutics following vaccines work effectively and sufficient preparedness is in place, this year the COVID-19 pandemic could subside to an endemic level similar to that of the common flu.

Pandemic or Endemic?

Omicron’s spread in South Korea has accelerated sharply about a month and a half after its initial entry. The health authorities predict that by this weekend, the detection rate of the Omicron variant will exceed 50%, making it the dominant strain. According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, the domestic detection rate of Omicron over the past three weeks has rapidly increased from 4.0% to 12.5% to 26.7%. The Honam region, including Gwangju, has already seen Omicron become dominant at 59.2%, with strong spread also observed in provincial areas such as the Gyeongbuk region (37.1%) and Gangwon region (31.4%). The detection rate among imported cases is also 94.7%, meaning that nearly all imported confirmed cases are Omicron patients.

The total number of COVID-19 confirmed cases is also surging. The previous day’s total reached 700,102, surpassing 700,000 for the first time in over two years. The number of new daily cases increased by 5,805 in one day, exceeding 5,000 for the first time this month. Although recent high-intensity social distancing and third-dose vaccinations were expected to reduce the spread, the influence of Omicron’s spread is causing numbers to rise again.

Overseas, the number of confirmed cases and hospitalizations is also skyrocketing under the influence of Omicron. In the United States, as of the 17th (local time), the weekly average daily COVID-19 hospitalizations reached 156,505, the highest since the pandemic began. The daily average of new confirmed cases is also hovering around 800,000. France surpassed 460,000 new cases on the 18th. However, in countries like the U.S. and the U.K., where the Omicron wave arrived earlier, the spread is slowing or decreasing, leading to analyses that the Omicron wave may end soon.

"Medical Capacity Must Be Prepared for Possible Scenarios"

Experts point out that even if the optimistic prediction that the Omicron variant is less severe is correct, the overall societal damage could still be greater than that caused by the Delta variant, and this possibility must be considered. Masanghyuk Sanghyuk, Chair of the Infectious Disease Countermeasures Committee at the Gyeongnam Medical Association (Vice President of the Korean Vaccine Society), said, "The Omicron variant is highly transmissible but less pathogenic," predicting that "the severe case and death rates will decrease." However, Baek Sunyoung, Professor Emeritus at the Catholic University Medical School, stated, "Currently, we must prepare for the worst-case scenario and set social distancing and other quarantine measures accordingly. If severe cases are truly low, then quarantine measures can be eased, but this should be done flexibly at that time, and for now, a conservative approach is appropriate."

Medical staff are caring for a patient in the intensive care unit of Pakae Hospital in Pyeongtaek-si, Gyeonggi-do, a designated COVID-19 specialized hospital. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

All agreed that expanding medical system capacity is crucial to withstand the immediate crisis. In particular, they emphasized that sufficient measures must be taken to respond by combining the capabilities of private medical institutions with public ones. Professor Kim Yoon of Seoul National University Medical School stressed, "Beds and personnel that can be mobilized in emergencies must be expanded," adding, "Since public institutions alone cannot handle large-scale outbreaks like Omicron, private sectors must also participate, similar to how influenza is managed." Chairman Masanghyuk also urged, "In South Korea, where medical accessibility is excellent, rather than distinguishing between private and public sectors, everyone should be able to provide care together." Professor Baek pointed out, "The key is how well home treatment is managed to avoid hospitalization and keep cases mild. Since local clinics cannot handle weekend or nighttime care, health authorities or local governments must establish a 24-hour response system."

Experts also predicted that after the Omicron wave passes, COVID-19’s risk level will decrease to an endemic level, even if it does not end completely. Professor Baek said, "Omicron will be the last variant," analyzing that "with artificial immunity from vaccines combined with natural immunity gained by many people contracting COVID-19, herd immunity will approach a level where, although eradication is difficult, the disease will be manageable like the flu." Professor Kim also argued, "With vaccines and therapeutics, the situation will improve compared to before, but periodic outbreaks will recur. The medical system must transition to treating COVID-19 in routine care settings, just like influenza."