"'Hope for Herd Immunity Through Vaccination' Disappears... Need to Manage Endemic [Reading Science]"

International Journal 'Nature' Points Out in Editorial on the 10th

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] The illusion that COVID-19 could be overcome through 'herd immunity' generated by vaccination or infection has been shattered, and experts point out that countries around the world must now decide how to 'live with' the COVID-19 virus. Given the surge in breakthrough infections and reinfections, rather than focusing on herd immunity, efforts should be made to increase vaccine coverage in underdeveloped countries to minimize the emergence of destructive new variants, and hope should be placed on newly developed vaccines and oral therapeutics currently in development to manage COVID-19 as an 'endemic' (localized epidemic).

The international academic journal Nature argued this in its editorial on the 10th. According to Nature, as the new year begins, COVID-19 cases are rapidly increasing in many countries worldwide, and especially since the emergence of the Omicron variant in November last year, even countries with high vaccination rates are experiencing strain on their public health systems. Moreover, underdeveloped countries are exposed helplessly to the spread of infection due to insufficient vaccine supply or very low vaccination rates. Fortunately, although the Omicron variant spreads about three times more easily than the previous Delta variant, it has been confirmed to have weaker toxicity.

However, as hospital beds run out, the number of patients dying without receiving treatment is increasing. In addition, students are attending remote classes, and international travel is restricted, causing significant social and economic damage. A high number of infections means that many people are at risk of life-threatening conditions or long-term aftereffects. Especially unvaccinated individuals, such as children, are even more exposed to these risks.

Not all news is bad. Booster shots have shown sufficient effectiveness in preventing severe illness and death. Animal experiments on the Omicron variant have also confirmed that it primarily affects the upper respiratory tract without infecting the lungs. On the other hand, the low vaccination rates in underdeveloped countries such as those in Africa remain a serious problem. Nature pointed out, "While infection rates are soaring globally, many countries still do not receive adequate vaccine supplies, and concerns about additional variants remain high."

In particular, the hope that the pandemic would end with herd immunity formed through vaccination and infection has long been shattered. Nature stated, "What is clear is that the hope of forming herd immunity against COVID-19 through vaccines and infection has almost disappeared," adding, "Although vaccines do not eradicate the COVID-19 virus, the idea that it will become endemic while protecting against severe illness is widely spreading." Regarding existing vaccines, it noted, "Reinfections of COVID-19 have become more common, and some widely used vaccines have faced challenges against variants," and evaluated that "existing vaccines developed to respond to early variants now require a third dose (booster shot) to provide sufficient immunity to prevent infection."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, humanity's ability to combat the COVID-19 virus continues to improve. The Novavax vaccine, a protein-based vaccine that is easier to store and use than mRNA vaccines, received emergency use authorization from the World Health Organization (WHO) in December last year. In addition, vaccines specialized for the Omicron variant are under development, and nasal vaccines, which are faster to use and distribute, are undergoing clinical trials in China and the United Kingdom, respectively. Oral antiviral treatments have also recently been approved and production has begun in some countries. Merck's molnupiravir and Pfizer's Paxlovid are the main examples.

Nature urged that sufficient vaccine supply to underdeveloped countries is essential to prevent the emergence of 'deadly' additional variants. Nature advised, "The emergence of Omicron and other variants has shown that vaccines must be adequately supplied to underdeveloped countries as well," adding, "Efforts to expand vaccine coverage will be in the best interest of all countries. Particularly in regions with low vaccination rates, destructive variants may emerge and trigger explosive outbreaks, especially where testing is inadequate."

Furthermore, Nature advised that what countries worldwide need now is an effort to adapt to COVID-19. Nature stated, "It is an undeniable reality that the virus will continue to change and circulate," and argued, "Governments must continue to rely on the advice and guidance of scientists. It is not always possible to predict the virus's future path, and efforts must be made to adapt to the virus going forward."