Analysis of Past Presidential Election Results from Left-Right Ideological Perspectives
"Right Wing Clearly Advantageous in One-on-One Left-Right Contests"
"Whether Winning or Conceding, Unity Is Necessary to Defeat Lee Jae-myung"
Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party's presidential candidate (right), and Ahn Cheol-soo, the People Party's presidential candidate, attended the '2022 New Year's Meeting for Small Business Owners' held on the 5th at the Korea Federation of SMEs in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@
[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Joohee] Kim Hyuncheol, distinguished professor at Dongguk University Graduate School of Media and Information and son of the late former President Kim Young-sam, predicted that regime change would be possible if Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, and Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party, unify in this presidential election.
On the 10th, Professor Kim wrote on his Facebook, "This election is a contest between left-wing Lee Jae-myung and right-wing Yoon Seok-yeol," adding, "With Ahn Cheol-soo, who leans toward the right wing, having a high possibility of unification, the one-on-one left-right contest is likely to be won by the right wing."
Professor Kim cited his analysis of the election structure since the establishment of the 1987 system from the perspective of left-right ideological confrontation as the basis. He said, "In the 1992 presidential election, the three right-wing parties united to support right-wing YS (Kim Young-sam), who won against left-wing DJ (Kim Dae-jung) and right-wing Chung Ju-young by an 8% margin," adding, "The power of the right-wing coalition was so strong, and the regional size difference between Yeongnam and Honam had a significant impact on the overall vote share. Ultimately, the one-on-one left-right confrontation clearly proves that the right wing has an advantage."
He continued, "In the 1997 presidential election, left-wing DJ allied with right-wing JP (Kim Jong-pil) and won against the pan-right candidate Lee Hoi-chang by about 3%, demonstrating that a left-wing victory through left-right cooperation was possible. In the 2002 presidential election, left-wing Roh Moo-hyun unified with right-wing Chung Mong-joon and again defeated right-wing Lee Hoi-chang by about 2%," he explained.
Kim Hyun-chul, son of the late former President Kim Young-sam, Chair Professor of the Department of Media and Communication at Dongguk University. / Photo by Yonhap News
He said, "In the 2012 presidential election, right-wing Park Geun-hye won against left-wing Moon Jae-in by about 3% in a one-on-one contest," adding, "In the 2017 presidential election, right-wing Park Geun-hye collapsed significantly due to impeachment, and left-wing Moon Jae-in won against right-wing Hong Jun-pyo by nearly 20%. Although moderate Ahn Cheol-soo’s strong performance contributed, the real driving force behind the victory was the left-wing and the left-right cooperation involving some right-wing voters who shifted to the left. Ultimately, it was never a victory by the left wing alone."
Based on past presidential election results, Professor Kim predicted that if candidates Yoon and Ahn unify in this election, the conservative party is highly likely to win in a one-on-one left-right contest. He emphasized, "A wise and meticulous strategy should achieve a clean unification to create synergy and overwhelm the left wing," adding, "No matter who wins or concedes, the unified candidate will definitely defeat left-wing Lee Jae-myung."
He also added, "Regime change is a historical mission," and "I eagerly await the day when a country worthy of its name and individuals true to themselves will come as soon as possible."
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