[AK Opinion Poll] Golden Cross Lee Jae-myung Cools Down Momentum for Regime Change

Democratic Party and People Power Party Support Tied

Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung and People Power Party presidential candidate Yoon Seok-youl in conversation
[Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jin-young] In the first public opinion poll of the new year, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party of Korea's presidential candidate, who achieved a 'golden cross,' took the lead as the 65-day presidential election campaign began. With Lee's rising momentum, the call for regime change somewhat softened, and the two major parties, the Democratic Party and the People Power Party, were in a tight race in party support.

As for the 'most suitable person for the next president,' Lee led with 32.8%. Candidate Yoon recorded 25.4%. Ahn Cheol-soo, the People's Party presidential candidate, followed with 6.3%, and Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party presidential candidate, had 3.7%. Other figures accounted for 0.6%, and 29.5% responded with none or don't know. Lee led significantly among those in their 40s (49.7%) and 50s (45.7%), surpassing Yoon in all age groups except those aged 60 and above. Regionally, he showed strength in the Honam area (55.1%), and by occupation, among white-collar workers (39.7%). Conversely, Yoon was dominant among those aged 60 and above (49.4%), Daegu·Gyeongbuk (40.1%), Gangwon·Jeju (48.3%), housewives (40.0%), and the unemployed (42.9%). Among progressives, Lee (55.1%) held a majority, while among conservatives, Yoon (52.1%) did. Among centrists, Lee (30.9%) led Yoon (24.3%) by 6.6 percentage points.

The enthusiasm for regime change also appears to have cooled somewhat. When asked, 'What result do you hope for in next year's presidential election?' 34.5% hoped for the Democratic Party's regime continuation, while 38.1% favored regime change to the People Power Party, showing a close contest within the margin of error. Other parties and independent candidates accounted for 13.1%, and 14.4% were unsure. In the fourth week of November, the opinion favoring regime change to the People Power Party was 50.7%, and regime continuation was 34.3%, with regime change exceeding the majority. Among centrists, 36.9% favored 'regime change,' and 32.3% favored 'regime continuation,' with regime change slightly ahead within the margin of error.

In party support, the Democratic Party and the People Power Party showed a tight race. When asked, 'Which party do you currently support or have at least some favorable impression of?' 25.7% chose the Democratic Party, and 24.8% chose the People Power Party. The Justice Party had 3.6%, the Open Democratic Party 3.4%, and the People's Party 3.1%, with 38.3% being non-affiliated. Among centrists, non-affiliated voters made up 44.7%, while support for the People Power Party (21.6%) and the Democratic Party (20.0%) was at similar levels.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy, commissioned to Win-G Korea Consulting, targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and above, from the 28th to 29th of last month, with 1,009 respondents and an overall response rate of 10.7%. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual number, conducted via telephone interviews. The sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.