Moon Jung-in "US Nuclear Umbrella Skepticism May Misjudge North Korea-ROK Alliance Cohesion"

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] Moon Jung-in, Chairman of the Sejong Institute, argued that if South Korea raises skepticism about the U.S. nuclear umbrella to justify its own nuclear armament, North Korea may misjudge the cohesion of the South Korea-U.S. alliance.

On the 20th, at an international seminar titled "Responding to the Northeast Asia Nuclear Domino: Comprehensive Final Report," co-hosted by the Sejong Institute and the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN) for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, Chairman Moon pointed out, "The more negative and skeptical opinions are expressed in South Korea regarding the U.S. nuclear umbrella, the more North Korea may think, 'The U.S.'s willingness to provide nuclear defense for South Korea is weakening.'"

Chairman Moon argued that to respond to the North Korean nuclear threat, deterrence based on the South Korea-U.S. alliance, conventional armaments, and the nuclear umbrella should be maintained rather than pursuing independent nuclear armament.

There was also a claim that among the nuclear-weapon-free countries in Northeast Asia, Japan could be the first to develop nuclear weapons. Peter Hayes, professor at the International Security Research Center at the University of Sydney, argued that Japan has already accumulated enough plutonium to produce 6,000 nuclear warheads and possesses the scientific and technological capabilities to easily convert them into ballistic missiles, making nuclear armament possible within 2 to 3 months.

South Korea's nuclear armament tendencies could also strengthen, but since its rocket program is less developed and most nuclear material is in waste form, it is estimated that nuclear armament would take 2 to 3 years.