"Japan Overtaken by Korea... Economist Predicts GDP Will Be Twice as Large in 20 Years"

"South Korea's Per Capita GDP Will Be Twice Japan's in 20 Years"
"South Korea Should Strengthen University Quality and Improve English Skills"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Juhyung] A prominent Japanese economist has predicted that by the 2040s, South Korea's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will nearly double that of Japan, drawing significant attention.

On the 12th (local time), the Japanese economic magazine Toyo Keizai published an article by Yukio Noguchi, Professor Emeritus at Hitotsubashi University, who strongly criticized Japan's economic policies, stating, "Both Japan and South Korea have experienced economic crises, but Japan has fallen far behind South Korea in its response."

Professor Noguchi cited various international indicators such as average national wages, nominal GDP, and national competitiveness rankings as evidence. According to him, in the average wage rankings compiled by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), South Korea recorded $41,960 (approximately 49.66 million KRW), while Japan recorded $38,515 (approximately 45.59 million KRW), indicating that Japan has already fallen behind South Korea in real wages.

The difference in GDP growth rates was also stark. Since 2000, South Korea's per capita nominal GDP has grown by 285.2%, whereas Japan's increased by only 2.9%.

The main stadium of the Tokyo Olympics in Japan, where the '2020 Tokyo Olympics' were held last July. According to the Japanese Cabinet Office, Japan's third-quarter (July-September) economic growth rate, including the Olympic period, decreased by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter (preliminary figure). / Photo by Yonhap News

In the 'World Competitiveness Ranking' published annually by the Swiss International Institute for Management Development (IMD), South Korea ranked 23rd, while Japan ranked 31st. Additionally, in the United Nations (UN) e-Government rankings, South Korea was 2nd and Japan 14th, showing a significant gap.

Regarding the reasons why Japan has been overtaken by South Korea in various international indicators, Professor Noguchi diagnosed, "South Korea has enhanced its competitiveness by strengthening university quality and improving English proficiency, but Japan has done nothing. The current results are a consequence of that."

He added, "South Korea is becoming a wealthier country than Japan," lamenting, "South Korea commercialized 5G (fifth-generation) mobile communications in 2019, but last fall I bought a 5G phone in Japan and still have no idea when I will be able to use the service."

He further noted, "Last year, per capita GDP was $40,146 (approximately 47.4 million KRW) for Japan and $31,496 (approximately 37 million KRW) for South Korea, so Japan is still higher, but Japan has only been stagnant for the past 20 years," and predicted, "Therefore, Japan being overtaken by South Korea is not just inevitable, but the gap between the two countries will widen over time."

He forecasted that if current trends continue, the per capita GDP gap between Japan and South Korea will nearly double in 20 years.

Professor Noguchi urged Japan to conduct thorough self-reflection to avoid falling behind other advanced countries.

He questioned, "Are Japanese people reflecting on the past and making efforts to change the present?" and emphasized, "There will be no savior god. To change the current situation, only the Japanese themselves must awaken and make efforts."