[The Editors' Verdict] Survival Strategies in the New Cold War Era

[Asia Economy] On the 9th and 10th, the Democracy Summit was held with the participation of leaders from 110 countries.

At this summit, U.S. President Joe Biden warned of the "threat to democracy by authoritarian states" and proposed that countries "act" together to defend the values of "justice, the rule of law, freedom of the press, and human rights" and to defeat dictatorship.

In fact, all countries on Earth wear the "guise of democracy." However, the reality created by this guise is bipolar. This bipolarity appears as freedom versus oppression, autonomy versus control (surveillance), openness versus closure, diversity versus uniformity, and flexibility versus rigidity.

This bipolarity can be summarized as civilization versus anti-civilization. Anti-civilization has damaged democracy and driven it into crisis. Now is the time to heal the damage to democracy and restore democracy in crisis. Therefore, the significance of this Democracy Summit is profound.

When the Soviet system collapsed in 1991 and the Cold War ended, we were filled with hope that anti-civilization would disappear as well. With the start of the post-Cold War era, it was expected that democracy based on values such as freedom, democracy, openness, human rights, and equality would function normally. Francis Fukuyama’s "The End of History" represented that expectation. Fukuyama’s "history" naturally meant the continuation of the history of civilization.

However, more than 30 years later, it has been proven to be nothing but a fleeting dream. Rather than the "end of history," a new "war of history" has begun. This means that the values and ideologies of civilization are facing fierce challenges from the values and ideologies of anti-civilization.

The current era, in which civilization and anti-civilization clash, is called the New Cold War. We must prepare ways to live through the transition from the post-Cold War to the New Cold War. It is natural that survival strategies for the post-Cold War and the New Cold War must differ. If the post-Cold War was an era of value burial, the New Cold War is an era to newly restore and establish values.

In fact, during the post-Cold War era, the global value chain (GVC) built around the economy operated. The post-Cold War was a time when the construction of supply chains centered on a unipolar (China) system for the sole purpose of creating economic added value became routine. However, with China’s relative rise triggering the U.S.-China hegemonic competition, the New Cold War has arrived.

The characteristic of the New Cold War is that the scope of the global value chain is expanding beyond the economy to politics and diplomacy, and the economic value chain is being forcibly reorganized based on political and diplomatic criteria.

Also, the unipolar-centered supply chain is being reorganized into a multipolar dependency system including the U.S., India, and Southeast Asia. This means that the global supply chain is undergoing realignments centered on values and ideologies, and freedom, democracy, and human rights are functioning as core criteria for political and diplomatic reorganization.

The transition from the post-Cold War to the New Cold War era forces a choice. It is natural to choose the values of civilization: freedom, democracy, and human rights. However, the government’s choice still seems to remain complacent in the era of value burial. This is evident in the policy of "Anmi Gyeongjung" (安美經中), meaning security with the U.S. and economy with China, and in the government’s turning a blind eye to North Korean human rights at this summit. Especially, the government’s neglect of human rights issues seems to align with anti-civilization, making it difficult to avoid criticism.

The government must devise a new strategy. The priority task is to reestablish foreign relations based on correct values and ideologies. In particular, it must ride the wave of multipolar-centered diversification. Also, establishing a stable domestic supply chain is necessary.

To this end, excessive shackles on companies must be eased or removed to lay the foundation for reshoring and onshoring. Only then can fair and steady progress be possible in the New Cold War era.

Jo Young-gi, Chairman of the Advanced Unification Research Association, Korea Peninsula Advancement Foundation