Renewable Energy to Surpass LNG by 2028

Coal Surpasses Expectations in 2025

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Joo Sang-don] As renewable energy generation rapidly increases, it is expected to surpass coal in generation capacity by 2025 and liquefied natural gas (LNG) generation by 2028.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on the 6th, renewable energy facility capacity next year will be 29.4GW, an increase of 4.7GW from this year. In contrast, coal is expected to increase only slightly from 37.3GW to 38.3GW, a 1.0GW increase.

Renewable energy generation capacity will increase sharply until 2034. The government's target is to secure 45.8GW of generation capacity by 2025 and 77.8GW by 2034.

Coal will peak at 40.6GW in 2024 and then begin to decline. Until 2024, the newly added generation capacity exceeds the coal power plants that are being decommissioned or converted to LNG.

As of December 2020, there are 60 coal power plants nationwide with a total capacity of 35.8GW. Between 2020 and 2022, six aging units (2.6GW) including Boryeong 1 & 2, Samcheonpo 1 & 2, and Honam 1 & 2 will be decommissioned, but four new units (4.1GW) such as Shinseocheon 1, Goseong High 1 & 2, and Gangneung Anin 1 will be commissioned. Although the number of decommissioned plants is greater, the commissioning of larger capacity plants will increase the total facility capacity to 35.8GW despite the reduction to 58 plants.

Afterwards, as the number of decommissioned coal power plants rapidly increases, both the number of generators and capacity will decrease. From 2023 to 2030, a total of 18 units (9.1GW) including Samcheonpo 3 to 6, Taean 1 to 4, Hadong 1 to 4, Dangjin 1 to 4, and Boryeong 5 & 6 will be decommissioned and converted to LNG fuel. Instead, three new units (3.1GW) such as Gangneung Anin 2 and Samcheok Thermal 1 & 2 will be commissioned. As a result, by 2030, coal power plants will be reduced to 43 units with a capacity of 35.8GW.

Between 2031 and 2034, six units (3.6GW) including Taean 5 & 6, Hadong 5 & 6, and Yeongheung 1 & 2 will be decommissioned and converted to LNG, leaving only 37 units (29.0GW).

However, even this will reach zero by 2050. Through the '2050 Carbon Neutral Scenario,' the government has finalized two plans: Plan A, which completely halts all thermal power generation including coal and LNG, and Plan B, which retains LNG generation. Both scenarios involve the complete phase-out of coal power generation.

According to the Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, LNG generation will increase until 2034. It will rise from 43.3GW in 2022 to 54.5GW in 2030 and 58.1GW in 2034. Between 2022 and 2024, four power plants totaling 4.2GW including Yeoju Combined Cycle, Tongyeong Combined Cycle, Eumseong Natural Gas, and Ulsan GPS will be newly constructed. Additionally, 24 coal power plants will be converted to LNG between 2024 and 2034.

By 2028, LNG generation will decrease to 52.0GW, which is less than renewable energy at 53.3GW. Coal will fall below renewable energy earlier, with 38.6GW in 2025 compared to 45.8GW for renewables.