[Economic Outlook] Will the Rise in Household Loans Slow Down... Excess Tax Revenue Also Draws 'Attention'

A bank counter in Seoul / Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Son Seonhee] Next week, economic indicators that can reveal the increase in household loans and the scale of excess tax revenue will be announced.

The Bank of Korea will release the "November Financial Market Trends," including the balance and growth rate of household loans, on the 8th. Previously, in October, household loans increased by 5.2 trillion won compared to the end of September.

As the government tightened loan regulations, the increase sharply decreased compared to August (6.1 trillion won) and September (6.4 trillion won). This was the smallest increase in five months since May (-1.6 trillion won). Attention is focused on whether this trend of loan contraction continued last month as well.

Also, the Bank of Korea will announce the "October Balance of Payments (provisional)" results on the 7th. In September, the current account surplus was 10.07 billion dollars (approximately 11.938 trillion won), maintaining a surplus trend for 17 consecutive months, but the surplus decreased by 270 million dollars compared to the same month last year (10.34 billion dollars).

The scale of excess tax revenue at the end of the year is also a point of interest. The Ministry of Economy and Finance will publish the "Monthly Fiscal Trends December issue" on the 9th. It will include government revenue and expenditure, fiscal balance, and national debt as of October.

The government forecasted that additional excess tax revenue will reach 19 trillion won by the end of the year. Considering the approximately 31.6 trillion won expected during the second supplementary budget formulation in July, the total excess tax revenue will exceed 50 trillion won.

Statistics Korea will announce the future population projection results on the 8th. This projection covers the period from 2020 to 2070. The trend of population decline due to low birth rates and aging is a key concern.