[War & Business] Ukraine's Military Downsizing

On the 21st (local time), Ukrainian airborne troops conducting military exercises in preparation for a Russian invasion in the Zhytomyr area of Ukraine. Zhytomyr (Ukraine) = Reuters · Yonhap News Agency

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] In 1991, immediately after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine, which gained independence, possessed arguably the strongest military power in Europe. Ukraine inherited the core Soviet forces stationed around the Black Sea, with a standing army of 780,000 troops, 6,500 tanks, and 2,500 tactical nuclear weapons, rivaling the entire military strength of Russia.

As a result, in the early days of independence, there were concerns that Ukraine might replace the Soviet Union as a military hegemon in Europe and invade neighboring countries. Additionally, reports frequently emerged of corrupt military officials secretly selling tactical nuclear weapons to China, Iran, and North Korea, drawing international attention to the risk of nuclear proliferation.

In response, the Ukrainian government sought to dispel these international concerns by undertaking an unprecedentedly rapid military downsizing. Entering the 2000s, Ukraine dismantled all its nuclear weapons domestically or handed them over to the United States and the international community, and reduced its conventional forces to one-tenth.

By 2013, Ukraine had completely abolished conscription and significantly reduced its standing army to 140,000 troops. Up to that point, Ukraine trusted the collective security system guaranteed by the United States and the European Union (EU), and expected substantial economic support as compensation for the extensive military reductions.

However, these expectations were shattered in 2014 when Russia forcibly annexed the Crimean Peninsula. Russia quickly occupied Crimea in collusion with separatist forces in eastern Ukraine, and special forces disguised as militias infiltrated the eastern regions of Ukraine.

At that time, the United States and the EU, bogged down by conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, were unable to take any military action against Russia beyond economic sanctions. The civil war in eastern Ukraine has since continued for over seven years, resulting in the deaths of more than 16,000 soldiers to date.

Amid this situation, Russia has once again deployed a force of 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine, raising fears that the entire country could be overrun. Ukraine has appealed to the United States and Western countries for military support and requested to be admitted as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but these efforts have repeatedly failed due to opposition from other member states. The United States is focusing more on countering China, and European countries, having reduced most of their conventional forces, fear direct confrontation with Russia.

Ultimately, the cost of Ukraine’s unprecedentedly rapid military downsizing policy has returned as the threat of full-scale Russian invasion. In the harsh reality of the international community, while any country's leader may dream of a rosy peace plan, the great lesson remains that no other country will take responsibility for one’s national defense.