D-100 Unwavering Approval Ratings... Imminent Paradigm Shift Begins

No Significant Floating Voter Shift
Likely to Move as an Opportunity for Qualification Verification

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, are attending a media event held at the Four Seasons Hotel in Jongno-gu, Seoul on the 24th, exchanging greetings. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

[Asia Economy Reporters Oh Ju-yeon, Lee Hyun-joo] "Seems to narrow, yet not quite." Although many analyses suggest that the gap in approval ratings between the two presidential candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl, is narrowing, actual public opinion polls show that both candidates are stuck in stagnant approval ratings. This is interpreted as the swing voters, excluding the fixed support base, still being undecided.

In a poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of OhmyNews from the 22nd to the 26th among 3,023 men and women aged 18 and over (margin of error ±1.8 percentage points at 95% confidence level), Candidate Yoon recorded 46.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous survey (7th-8th), while Candidate Lee rose 2.7 percentage points to 36.9%, narrowing the gap from 12.0 percentage points to 9.4 percentage points. However, the difference remains outside the margin of error.

This change is interpreted as being due to the weakening of the "convention effect" that Candidate Yoon had enjoyed, combined with the solidification of both camps. In this survey, the undecided swing voters decreased only slightly from 8.6% to 7.9%, a 0.7 percentage point drop.

Another poll released on the same day showed Candidate Yoon at 41.8% and Candidate Lee at 39.0%, a 2.8 percentage point difference. This was a survey conducted by the Korean Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) on behalf of TBS from the 26th to 27th among 1,009 men and women aged 18 and over (margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level).

Although the gap widened again from 0.5 percentage points in the previous survey (19th-20th, Yoon 40.0%, Lee 39.5%), both survey results maintained a "close race within the margin of error." The undecided voters also decreased slightly from 8.5% to 8.1%, showing no significant change.

Experts diagnose that the approval ratings of the two candidates appear to be in a deadlock. Political commentator Hwang Tae-soon said in a phone interview, "Swing voters tend to move due to specific triggers, but there is none at the moment," adding, "Approval ratings will move during the process of judging candidates' qualities through multi-party debates or incidents like gaffes, and the real contest starts now."

Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, also said, "Candidate Yoon's approval rating is stuck in the low 40% range, and Candidate Lee's is in the mid-30% range," adding, "I don't think there will be major variables to shake the approval ratings going forward." He pointed out that "prosecutorial investigations, debates, or spouse-related issues are unlikely to have a significant impact," and warned that "rather, negative feelings toward the candidates could lead to lower voter turnout."