Over 10 Years, Expected Number of Children per Married Woman Drops by 0.28 to 1.68 Children

'2020 Population and Housing Census Population Characteristics Sample Aggregation' Results
"12.5% of All Respondents Say They Have Additional Childbirth Plans"

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] The expected number of children for married women aged 15 to 49 in South Korea has sharply declined by 0.28 over the past decade, reaching only 1.68. The expected number of children refers to the sum of the number of births and the number of planned additional children.

According to the "2020 Population and Housing Census Sample Tabulation Results" released by Statistics Korea on the 29th, as of November 1 last year, the female population in South Korea was 25,161,000, an increase of 275,000 (1.1 percentage points) from 24,886,000 in 2015. The median age rose by 3.2 years to 45.6, and the average age increased by 2.6 years to 44.2.

Notably, the expected number of children is decreasing while the age at first marriage is clearly increasing. This is a decisive factor affecting population decline.

The age at first marriage for married women aged 15 and older increased by 0.4 years from 24.2 in 2015 to 24.6 in 2020. For married men, it rose by 0.5 years from 27.8 to 28.3. By education level, the age at first marriage for married women was highest among those with a university degree or higher at 27.1 years, compared to 24.2 years for high school graduates and 21.6 years for those with middle school education or less.

Accordingly, the number of births per married woman aged 15 to 49 was 1.52, down 0.11 from 1.63 in 2015. In particular, the expected number of children was 1.68, a decrease of 0.15 from 1.83 in 2015. Compared to 1.96 in 2010, this is a sharp drop of 0.28. Among married women aged 15 to 49, the proportion who reported plans to have additional children was 12.5%, down 2.3 percentage points from 14.8% in 2015.

The average age at first childbirth for married women aged 15 and older was 25.7 years, up 0.4 years from 25.3 in 2015. The average age at last childbirth was 29.7 years, slightly higher by 0.1 years compared to 29.6 in 2015. The average childbirth interval was 4 years and 9 months, shortened by 3 months from 5 years in 2015. The average childbirth interval refers to the period between the birth of the last child and the first child.

The top region for population distribution by birthplace was Seoul. The population distribution by birthplace was highest in Seoul at 16.3% (8,197,000 people), followed by Gyeonggi (6,816,000 people, 13.6%) and Gyeongbuk (4,387,000 people, 8.7%). Among people currently living in Seoul, only 48.3% were born in Seoul, followed by Gyeonggi (8.0%) and Jeollanam-do (7.3%). Based on residence one year ago, the population moving into the Seoul metropolitan area, including Seoul and Gyeonggi, was 978,000, while the population moving out was 862,000, resulting in a net inflow of 116,000 people.