Lee Jae-myung vs Yoon Seok-yeol, Narrowing Support Gap... 5 out of 7 Regular Surveys

Gradual Decline Compared to Right After Yeo Primary
Yoon's 'Convention Effect' Momentum Slows Down

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] Both ruling and opposition political circles are paying attention to the narrowing gap in approval ratings between the ruling and opposition presidential candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl, as shown in polls released this week. In a situation where there are no particular factors causing approval ratings to rise or fall, this change is mainly analyzed as the effect of the diminishing 'convention effect' of Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party's presidential candidate. On the 22nd, this article examined whether this phenomenon is truly evident by focusing only on 'regular polls' that show the trend of the approval rating gap between the two candidates among polls released after the 22nd.

According to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission, from the 22nd to the 25th, a total of 10 organizations conducted polls on next year's presidential candidates' approval ratings, of which 7 conducted regular polls. Among these 7, it was confirmed that in 5 polls, the approval rating gap between the two candidates narrowed compared to the second week of November, right after the opposition primary. This provides a reason for the political circles to be alert, using terms like 'chasing crisis' or 'close race.'

However, the extent of the gap reduction varies by poll, making it difficult to regard this as a kind of 'confirmed trend.' According to the most recent poll conducted by Gallup Korea commissioned by Money Today (surveyed 1,011 people aged 18 and over from the 22nd to 23rd, with a sampling error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level), the gap between the two candidates decreased significantly from 9.3 percentage points to 1.3 percentage points during this period.

The poll conducted by Realmeter commissioned by YTN (surveyed 1,011 people from the 22nd to 23rd, with a sampling error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level) showed the gap narrowing from 9.8 percentage points to 7.1 percentage points. The poll conducted by Polling Fairness commissioned by Dailyan (surveyed 1,000 people from the 19th to 20th, with a sampling error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level) showed a reduction from 17.2 percentage points to 7.1 percentage points. This means the gap narrowed by more than 10 percentage points within about two weeks.

The most talked-about poll was conducted by the Korean Social Opinion Institute (KSOI) for TBS. In this poll (surveyed 1,007 people from the 19th to 20th, with a sampling error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level), the gap, which was 13.2 percentage points in the poll conducted on the 12th to 13th, shrank significantly to 0.5 percentage points.

However, in polls conducted by Media Tomato and Win-G Korea Consulting, the gap actually widened. The gap increased from 5.7 percentage points to 7.9 percentage points and from 8.2 percentage points to 8.3 percentage points, respectively. However, it should be noted that the changes in the gap in both polls were small.

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, are attending a media event held at the Four Seasons Hotel in Jongno-gu, Seoul on the 24th, exchanging greetings. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

Lee Kang-yoon, director of the Korean Social Opinion Institute, appeared on YTN Radio that day and analyzed the reason for the significant change in approval ratings over the past week, saying, "When combining the proportion of respondents and the convention effect, it amounts to about 11 to 12 percentage points, which has been considerably reflected."

Lee explained, "The proportion of conservative respondents decreased by 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous week, and Democratic Party supporters increased by 3.6 percentage points." He also said, "Looking at cumulative data from the U.S., where polls are heavily used in politics and elections, the convention effect lasts about 10 days to at most two weeks, with a 4 to 5 percentage point impact. Yoon's effect was higher than this, but over time, it can be seen as having decreased by about 4 to 5 percentage points."

Research director Bae Jong-chan of Insight K also judged that the two candidates have entered a full-fledged 'seesaw game.' Bae said, "Most polls have shown that Yoon had a double-digit gap over Lee for at least two weeks since Yoon was finally selected on the 5th," adding, "But the common point in the last 3 to 4 days is that the gap between the two candidates is significantly narrowing."

He predicted, "If this continues for about two weeks, it means the two candidates are entering a full-fledged seesaw game, and it would not be unreasonable to assume that the consolidation of both camps is beginning in earnest."

Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University said in a phone interview, "Yoon's rise in approval ratings was largely due to the convention effect," but added that the effect is unlikely to last more than two weeks. Professor Park analyzed, "Recently, there has been more talk about Yoon's presidential campaign than about Yoon himself within the People Power Party, while the Democratic Party is focusing on 'Lee Jae-myung's reform.' Because the two sides are contrasting, Lee tends to be gaining ground over Yoon."

Lee Jun-seok, leader of the People Power Party, also said in a radio interview that day, "Yoon's approval rating had been more than 10% ahead, but this strongly reflected the so-called over-sampling effect," adding, "The narrowing of the approval rating gap is neither surprising nor unexpected."

For detailed information on the polls, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.