[AKYUNG Poll] Yoon Seok-yeol 42.7% · Lee Jae-myung 34.4%... Gap Outside Margin of Error Again

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] With 106 days remaining until the 20th presidential election, a public opinion poll conducted over two days from the 20th to the 21st showed that Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, maintained his '1st place position' outside the margin of error by leading Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, by 8.2 percentage points (rounded to the second decimal place). This gap is the same as that of a poll conducted from the 6th to the 7th, which reflected the 'convention effect' immediately after Yoon was selected as the main candidate. Although Lee has shown strong intentions for reform through declarations such as 'I will become Lee Jae-myung's Democratic Party' and the reorganization of the election committee, it appears that this has not offset the public opinion favoring a regime change.

In the presidential candidate support survey, Yoon received 42.7%, while Lee received 34.4%. Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party (4.5%), Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party (2.8%), and Kim Dong-yeon, chairman of the New Wave party preparatory committee (2.1%) followed. 'Other figures' accounted for 3.6%, 'None' 8.0%, and 'Don’t know' 1.8%. When asked who has the highest 'possibility' of ultimately winning the presidency regardless of candidate support, Yoon led with 48.5% over Lee’s 37.7%. Compared to the previous survey (Yoon 46.9%, Lee 38.7%), Yoon rose by 1.6 percentage points, while Lee dropped by 1 percentage point.

Yoon’s lead is interpreted as a result of public opinion favoring a regime change. 50.7% of voters expressed a desire for a 'regime change to the People Power Party,' while 34.3% wanted the Democratic Party to retain power. Other party/independent candidates accounted for 8.9%, and 'Don’t know' was 6.1%. The issue voters considered the 'Achilles’ heel' of the presidential election was undoubtedly real estate. When asked about the 'issues that will influence the presidential election,' 42.5% answered 'real estate stabilization and housing problems.' Other issues such as resolving polarization (11.7%), job issues (10.6%), and youth policies (6.9%) remained in the 10% range.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-Gi Korea Consulting targeting voters aged 18 and over nationwide from the 20th to the 21st. A total of 1,025 people responded, with an overall response rate of 7.5%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, and the sample was extracted with weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.