[Politics, That Day...] 4 Months Before the 2012 Presidential Election: Park Geun-hye 40%, Moon Jae-in 14%

Korea Gallup Poll Shows Park Geun-hye Candidate's Support Rate Three Times That of Moon Jae-in Candidate
Polls Favor Park Geun-hye, but Presidential Election Results Are Close

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, On That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

Park Geun-hye, Saenuri Party candidate, Moon Jae-in, Democratic United Party candidate, and Ahn Cheol-soo, independent candidate, are applauding at the National Fisheries People's Unity Festival held on November 6, 2012, at Seoul Plaza in Jung-gu, Seoul.

As of November 20, there are 110 days left until the next presidential election day (March 9 next year). The outcome of the next presidential election, which is about four months away, is the focus of attention. During the presidential election season, interest often shifts more to poll approval ratings than to the policies presented by the candidates.

There are various opinions on whether polls actually reflect the grassroots public sentiment. This is related to the problems of political polling in Korea. It is difficult to produce high-quality poll results due to the environment.

Polling organizations face the burden of producing results with a short survey period and low costs. Even substandard poll results sell well in the market. The general public finds it difficult to understand the process of deriving poll results properly and focuses only on the numbers.

Another reason why polls during the presidential election season differ from actual voting results is related to the characteristics of Korean politics. The 110 days until the presidential election is not a short period. Considering the dynamism of Korean politics, it is hard to predict what will happen and how public opinion trends will change.

This was also experienced in the 2012 presidential election. What was the flow of public opinion at the end of August, 110 days before the December 2012 election? We examined this based on the results of a survey by Gallup Korea, a leading polling organization in Korea.

Gallup Korea conducted a poll from August 27 to 31, 2012, using telephone interviews based on mobile phones for the fifth week of August. A total of 1,555 adults nationwide participated, with a sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points (95% confidence level), and a response rate of 20%.

In the multi-candidate survey for major presidential candidates, Park Geun-hye received 40%, Ahn Cheol-soo 25%, Moon Jae-in 14%, Sohn Hak-kyu 2%, Kim Du-kwan 2%, others 1%, and no response 16%. Park Geun-hye, the Saenuri Party candidate, had a poll approval rating three times that of Moon Jae-in, the Democratic United Party candidate.

Park Geun-hye’s poll lead was not a phenomenon seen only in the August 2012 survey. The reason Moon Jae-in struggled in the multi-candidate race against Park Geun-hye was related to the presence of politician Ahn Cheol-soo.

Ahn Cheol-soo’s approval rating was about twice that of Moon Jae-in in Gallup Korea’s fifth week of August 2012 survey. At that time, Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo were evaluated as having overlapping progressive and reformist support bases.

Then, what were the results in a two-candidate race rather than a multi-candidate race?

Moon Jae-in, the Democratic United Party presidential candidate, and Ahn Cheol-soo, the former independent candidate, are announcing their positions after meeting at Dalgaebi Restaurant in Jung-gu, Seoul, on the afternoon of December 6, 2012.

In Gallup Korea’s fifth week of August 2012 survey, Park Geun-hye had 49% and Moon Jae-in had 33% approval ratings. The two-candidate race also clearly showed Park Geun-hye’s lead. From early 2012 to the end of August, Park Geun-hye’s lead in Gallup Korea polls was steady.

Park Geun-hye led by a margin well beyond the margin of error.

Analyzing these poll results, the 2012 presidential election should have ended in a straightforward victory, but reality was different. The 2012 presidential election is recorded as one of the fiercest two-candidate races in Korean political history. Moon Jae-in actually received 48.02% of the vote in the December 2012 election.

Although he achieved a vote share worthy of expecting victory, the winner at that time was someone else.

Park Geun-hye was elected with 51.55% of the vote. Although polls showed Park Geun-hye comfortably ahead, the actual vote count was a narrow victory with a 3.53 percentage point difference. The polls taken about four months before the election and the actual vote results showed a large gap.

This is why there are criticisms that both the leading and trailing candidates in presidential election polls should not let their guard down.