[Fact Check] Did Public Opinion for Regime Change Exceed 60% During the MB Administration?

April 2011 EAI·YTN·JoongAng Ilbo Poll Shows 61.9% Support for Regime Change
Pre-2012 Presidential Election KBS Poll Indicates Around 50% Support for Regime Change
Claims That 2012 Presidential Election Regime Change Support Exceeded 60% Are 'Half-True'

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] Did the public opinion for regime change exceed 60% during the Lee Myung-bak administration? The keyword "regime change public opinion" has emerged as a topic of interest in relation to the next presidential election. Various broadcasts and online communities frequently refer to cases from the Lee Myung-bak government era.

It is true that the public opinion polls showing a desire for regime change were relatively high during the Lee Myung-bak administration.

Some voters viewed the election of Park Geun-hye, the Saenuri Party candidate and ruling party at the time, as a regime change. In fact, did the public opinion for regime change exceed 60% during the Lee Myung-bak administration? The results of public opinion polls vary depending on which institution conducted the survey, when, and by what method.

This means that a benchmark is needed to claim that the public opinion for regime change exceeded 60% during the Lee Myung-bak administration.

According to a public opinion poll commissioned by the East Asia Institute (EAI), YTN, and JoongAng Ilbo to Korea Research on April 30, 2011, surveying 800 adults nationwide, 61.9% agreed with the statement "We should judge the failures of the Lee Myung-bak government and change the regime."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This confirms that in some polls conducted in April 2011, one year and eight months before the December 2012 presidential election, the public opinion for regime change exceeded 60%. However, it is difficult to conclude that this poll represented the general public opinion at the time.

The question itself?whether to judge the failures of the Lee Myung-bak government and change the regime?contains a specific value judgment that may have influenced the rise in regime change public opinion.

So, what was the level of public opinion for regime change ahead of the 2012 presidential election?

A telephone interview survey conducted by KBS through Media Research on November 24-25, 2012, targeting 1,000 adults aged 19 and over, showed different results from the EAI, YTN, and JoongAng Ilbo polls. The KBS poll was conducted about a month before the 2012 presidential election.

The KBS poll asked, "Do you think it is better for the ruling Saenuri Party candidate to be elected as the next president, or would you prefer the opposition candidate to be elected this time?" to examine the regime change index (desired election outcome).

Photo by Cheongwadae

In the KBS poll at the end of November 2012, 47.8% hoped for regime change. This was higher than the 39.7% who wished for the Saenuri Party candidate's election but did not reach 60%. The KBS poll showed the regime change index as 52.2% at the end of September 2012, 50.8% at the end of October, and 47.8% at the end of November.

The EAI, YTN, JoongAng Ilbo polls and the KBS poll differed in timing, methods, and questions related to regime change. As such, public opinion poll results can vary depending on the survey body and method. The same applies to public opinion on regime change.

In conclusion, it is true that there were published poll results showing over 60% of the public hoped for regime change during the Lee Myung-bak administration.

However, other regular polls conducted ahead of the presidential election showed regime change public opinion around 50%. While there were instances where the regime change public opinion exceeded 60%, it is difficult to regard such figures as representative of the general public opinion for the 2012 presidential election.

After reviewing public opinion poll data related to the claim that the regime change public opinion exceeded 60% during the Lee Myung-bak administration, it was judged to be a "half-truth."