[Global Focus] Lame Duck After Just Ten Months in Office?…Biden in Crisis

'Teotbat' Virginia Governor Election Defeat Fallout
Focused Only on Criticizing Trump Without Policy or Vision
Presidential Approval Rating Hits New Low at 37.8%
Turned Away Due to Afghan Withdrawal and Intra-Party Budget Conflicts
"If This Continues, Republicans Will Win Big in Next Year's Midterm Election"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] "There is no thunder more threatening to the Democratic Party than this."

On the 2nd (local time), the New York Times (NYT) evaluated the Virginia gubernatorial election, in which the U.S. Democratic Party lost its stronghold to the Republican Party, in this way.

Virginia has been a state where the Democratic Party won 7 out of 10 gubernatorial elections held since the 1980s, excluding this election. In the last presidential election, President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump by a margin of 10 percentage points.

In this election, Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin led Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe by 2 percentage points. The Democratic vote share plummeted by 12 percentage points in just one year since the last presidential election.

This election was held one year after the 2020 presidential election and 10 months into President Biden's administration. It was also one year ahead of the midterm elections, often called the graveyard for the ruling party.

In U.S. politics, this election was perceived as a midterm evaluation of the Biden administration. This is why there are forecasts that the election results will cause significant aftershocks for the Democratic Party.

The NYT stated, "The election results reflect the public's anxiety about the current state of governance toward the Democratic Party, which came to power benefiting from the 'anti-Trump' sentiment in the last presidential election," and diagnosed that "the failure to return to pre-COVID-19 normalcy is a factor in losing public support."

President Biden's approval rating is hitting historic lows. According to a recent poll conducted by USA Today in collaboration with Suffolk University, Biden's approval rating was recorded at 37.8%. This is even lower than the 42% approval rating reported by Gallup on the 22nd of last month. The Biden administration is facing a serious crisis less than a year after its inauguration.

Lack of Vision and Leadership, Internal Conflicts within the Ruling Party

Experts cited as a reason for the Democratic Party's defeat the fact that the campaign was conducted solely by pandering to the 'anti-Trump' sentiment without presenting concrete policies or visions.

In fact, Democratic candidate McAuliffe focused only on attacking former President Trump, who declared support for Republican candidate Youngkin without proposing alternatives to Youngkin's policies during the Virginia gubernatorial campaign.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) pointed out, "Unlike Youngkin, who presented visionary policies by addressing various livelihood issues, McAuliffe did not convey any positive message," adding, "The election competitor became not the Republican Party but former President Trump."

It was noted that recalling Trump even a year after he lost power caused voter fatigue. Especially, voters prioritized livelihood issues such as overcoming the social crisis caused by nearly two years of the COVID-19 pandemic and restoring normal life over political issues.

Additionally, livelihood issues such as rapid price increases during the post-COVID-19 economic recovery process became a trigger for voters to direct their dissatisfaction toward the current government.

There were also many voices criticizing President Biden's lack of charisma and weak leadership.

A representative example is the Afghanistan withdrawal incident. The chaos and the escape of residents during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August showed the world a moment when American leadership essentially collapsed.

Some pointed out that internal conflicts within the Democratic Party over the massive budget proposed by the Biden administration also turned voters away. CNN criticized, "The Democratic Party has seen disputes between hardliners and moderates over Biden's agenda for months, which has hurt both Democratic lawmakers and the White House."

Before the election, moderate lawmakers argued that Biden's budget should be passed quickly to achieve policy effects even if it meant cuts, while hardliners insisted on banning the Republican filibuster and passing the budget bill as originally proposed.

Democratic moderate Representative Gerald Connolly said, "If we had passed the infrastructure bill last week before the election, it would have helped the campaign," adding, "Now is not the time to just sit and complain."

On the other hand, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, known as a leading hardliner within the Democratic Party, raised her voice against the moderate-led adjustments to the infrastructure budget, saying, "Morally, I cannot vote for this bill."

She voted against the bipartisan $550 billion new infrastructure development budget during the House vote on the 5th.

If This Continues, Trump Again in 2024

The Democratic Party is facing a crisis. If it fails to regain public support, it could face similar results in next year's midterm elections and the 2024 presidential election.

Republican senior election strategist Corey Bliss said, "Looking toward next year, a 'red wave' (Republican landslide) is approaching," adding, "The Democratic Party is not addressing the issues that ordinary citizens consider important."

According to polls by Harvard University's Center for American Political Studies and Harris Poll, 47% of Republican and independent voters said they would support former President Trump as the 2024 Republican primary candidate. Meanwhile, 44% of Democratic supporters opposed President Biden's re-election in the next presidential election.

The Democratic Party is focusing on implementing large-scale social spending and infrastructure development budgets as core policy agendas of President Biden to achieve policy outcomes.

It is analyzed that the $1.2 trillion (approximately 1,423 trillion KRW) infrastructure budget bill passing the congressional hurdle on the 5th after months of struggle was thanks to the White House taking action immediately after the election defeat.

There is also a strategy emerging that the Democratic Party and the Biden administration should emphasize their own achievements more rather than being absorbed only in political criticism of the Republican Party by relying on anti-Trump sentiment.

Senator Mazie Hirono, a Democrat, emphasized, "We need to make more efforts to communicate with the public about what we are doing and what policies we are implementing for America's middle class."

Some argue that the political situation is fluid ahead of next year's midterm elections, so the Democratic Party will not necessarily be at a disadvantage.