[Bbang Gubneun Tajagi] Politicians Say 'Growth Recovery'... The Man Reading the Economy Says "Imbalanced Recovery"

With Corona 2022 Economic Outlook

"The first pledge is the recovery of growth. We will definitely achieve 'transformative fair growth,' which lays the foundation for growth through the restoration of fairness and turns transitional crises into opportunities." (Politician's pick)

"In 2022, when an imbalanced recovery scenario is expected, respond flexibly according to the situation to seize opportunities." (The Man Who Reads the Economy's pick)

Recovery means returning to the state before being hit. One side talks about restoring growth, while the other talks about an imbalanced recovery. Is this a crossover of optimism and pessimism? Many economists are pessimists as well. Let's just say it is a difference between politicians' pledges and economists' forecasts. Pledges are strategic actions to gain votes. Forecasts are guides to help make rational choices to avoid risks.

The self-proclaimed and widely recognized "The Man Who Reads the Economy" is a YouTuber with 492,000 subscribers. Except for Shuka World with 1.83 million, Sampuro TV with 1.58 million, and The Man Who Reads Real Estate with 724,000 subscribers, he is one of the most well-known economists. His expertise has been verified, so his channel must have flourished, and there must be quite a few rumors of "I made money by following this person's advice." Naturally, his book summarizing "money talk" attracts attention.

This book is structured in a typical department-store style, listing domestic and international monetary, financial, real estate, and industrial forecasts for next year. It can be summarized in one sentence: "Major countries will withdraw the money they had injected, and wealth gaps between countries and social classes will widen depending on vaccine distribution rates." Then the point becomes not the book's content but "Why did The Man Who Reads the Economy pick imbalanced recovery as next year's keyword?"

The imbalance the author talks about is largely divided into gaps between countries and gaps among Koreans. What we are curious about is the latter. Global investment banks' (IB) forecasts for South Korea's economic growth rate next year range from 2.0% to 3.9%, and inflation forecasts range from 1.5% to 2.2%. The differences in growth rate forecasts among institutions are relatively large, and it is notable that four out of nine institutions expect growth in the 2% range. The author's view is not much different. The growth rate forecasts, analyzed under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios depending on the success of the With-Corona policy, are 2.4%, 2.9%, and 3.3%, respectively.

What is noteworthy is the common mention of "finance (assets)" in the response strategies of households and the government. For individuals, it advises refraining from excessive asset investment because the whole world is tightening the faucet on money, and interest rates are bound to rise. The government is also advised to prepare for the possibility of an asset bubble bursting due to interest rate hikes and the U.S. tapering (asset purchase reduction), in addition to stabilizing quarantine policies. It orders extreme caution against behaviors like "all-in" on specific assets or "panic buying," which are easily misled by the phrase "lightning poverty." For companies, it emphasizes managing supply chain risks by choosing countries with good raw material procurement and vaccine distribution in the short term and arming themselves with ESG (environment, social, governance) management trends.

This book is interesting in that, unlike other economic books that talk about optimism for the future, it reminds readers that "the era of 'all-in borrowing and investing' is over." It quotes Andrew Carnegie's famous saying, "The great opportunity comes to everyone. Only those who have the vision to foresee the future can seize that opportunity." What does this mean? Could it be a warning that the correct forecast is that the era of all-in borrowing and investing is over, and only by properly understanding this fact can one seize other great opportunities? If you want to see a responsible forecast that the world will not just recover growth in a common-sense way but will recover 'imbalanced growth' with 'imbalance' attached in front, I recommend investing your time.

(With Corona 2022 Economic Outlook / by Kim Kwangseok / Knowledge Nomad / 18,000 KRW)