[Asia Economy Reporter Jin-ho Kim] The Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute forecasted on the 28th that this year's annual export value will increase by 23% compared to the previous year, surpassing the all-time high of $630 billion. Exports in the fourth quarter are also expected to reach around $165 billion, a 16-17% increase compared to the same period last year.
In the '2021 Q3 Export Performance Evaluation and Q4 Outlook' released on the same day, the Eximbank stated that the export leading index for the fourth quarter has risen for four consecutive quarters compared to the same period last year. However, since the rate of increase has narrowed, the export growth trend is analyzed to be somewhat slowing down.
The export leading index is an index created to predict the degree of export increase or decrease by synthesizing variables affecting exports, such as the economic conditions of major export target countries, import volume for exports, order status by industry, and exchange rates.
An Eximbank official said, “Although export prices are rising due to increases in crude oil and raw material prices, the export growth trend is expected to ease due to the reduction of the base effect and disruptions in supply chains and logistics.”
He added, “If the spread of COVID-19 continues, causing prolonged global supply chain disruptions and port logistics congestion, and if consumption contracts due to inflation concerns and China's economic slowdown worsens due to power shortages, the export growth rate may fall short of the forecast.”
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