[Opinion] North Korea Afraid of Being Forgotten

Lee Yong-jun, Former North Korea Nuclear Ambassador and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs

What do celebrities or prominent figures fear the most? It is probably being forgotten by people. Once forgotten, there is no longer honor, benefit, or future. There is a country in the international community that fears being forgotten by others more than anything else. That country is North Korea.

North Korea fears being forgotten by the international community more than UN sanctions or the United States' "hostile policy." This is because, due to the nature of its regime, North Korea is not a country that can be self-sufficient and survive on its own in the international community, but rather an exploitation-oriented state that can only survive by others succumbing to its coercive claims and threats and paying bribes or compensation.

Nuclear armament was also part of North Korea's obsession to attract more attention from the international community and secure more means of exploitation. North Korea constantly argues that its security is threatened and its economy devastated due to the U.S.'s "hostile policy," and that it was forced to arm itself with nuclear weapons for defense. However, over the past several decades, it was North Korea itself that continuously enacted hostile policies against neighboring countries.

After declaring the "completion of nuclear forces" in 2017 through great effort, North Korea believed that all its dreams would be achieved at once. It thought South Korea would submit to the nuclear power North Korea, pay huge economic aid as tribute, and eventually be unified under absorption, and that the U.S. would accept North Korea's nuclear armament as an inevitable reality and agree to lift sanctions in exchange for dismantling the old Yongbyon nuclear facilities.

However, the U.S., rejecting North Korea's demands for sanctions relief, left without looking back to focus on the critical U.S.-China confrontation. Left alone on the stage after the audience departed, North Korea is suffocating under the sanctions left by the U.S., and although South Korea, the only remaining audience, is running around trying to help by waving the "end-of-war declaration" card, no one is paying attention.

With the U.S. firmly maintaining its position that there can be no sanctions relief without denuclearization, North Korea has refused the U.S.'s proposal for "unconditional nuclear talks" and insisted on "conditional nuclear talks for sanctions relief." However, as the U.S. has become absorbed in the U.S.-China confrontation and is gradually forgetting North Korea, fearful of being forgotten, North Korea has once again started provocations to attract attention.

North Korea, which attracted attention with short-range missile launches from the beginning of the year, escalated provocations in September with tests of long-range cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles, and last week even launched a short-range submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). There are also signs of expansion at the Yongbyon nuclear facility. If the U.S. remains unmoved, North Korea may proceed with additional nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches.

However, this is a rather difficult choice for North Korea as well. Such extreme provocations would only make sanctions relief, which North Korea desires, more distant and would ironically strengthen the conservative camp's position in the South Korean presidential election, resulting in a self-defeating failure.

The U.S. cannot accept North Korea's unreasonable demands either. Sanctions relief without denuclearization is a sure shortcut to realizing the permanent nuclear armament of North Korea. At this point, sanctions against North Korea are the only non-military pressure means to check North Korea's ambition for permanent nuclear armament.

Maintaining this firmly is an important and indispensable condition to protect peace from the North Korean nuclear threat. If sanctions are lifted before denuclearization, North Korea, having nothing more to gain, will never return to nuclear negotiations, leaving only the options of "accepting permanent North Korean nuclear armament" or "military resolution."