Taiwan Intelligence Chief Says "Low Possibility of War" Despite Provocations from China

[Asia Economy Reporter Yujin Cho] As China continues its military provocations against Taiwan, the head of Taiwan's intelligence agency stated that the likelihood of a war with China is very low.

On the 20th (local time), according to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP), Chen Mingtong, director of Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB), made this statement during a report to the Legislative Yuan's Foreign and National Defense Committee the previous day.

Director Chen said, "Unless there are accidental factors, nothing significant will happen during President Tsai Ing-wen's term over the next three years." However, he added, "Unexpected events like the COVID-19 pandemic are unforeseeable by anyone, so caution is necessary."

He further assessed that the current US-China relationship is structured as the "Thucydides Trap" and is "already irreversible."

The Thucydides Trap is an international relations theory that suggests that when an established great power fears the rise of a new great power and attempts to check it, the two powers eventually come into conflict.

Earlier, on the 14th, Chiu Tai-san, head (minister-level) of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), responsible for China, expressed concern that the unprecedented military show of force by 149 Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) from the 1st to the 4th had reached a state of "quasi-war."

Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwan's Minister of National Defense, also warned that military tensions with China have reached their highest level in 40 years and that China could launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025.

Minister Chiu stated, "Military deployment must have justification. Taiwan will never start a war, but if China takes military action, we will respond to the threat."

The Chinese military has increased the level of provocations against Taiwan this year. The Chinese military has violated Taiwan's ADIZ more than 600 times this year, with 149 of those incursions concentrated in early this month (from the 1st to the 4th). Yesterday, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported that two Chinese military aircraft, a Y-8 electronic warfare plane and a Y-8 anti-submarine patrol aircraft, entered the southwestern part of Taiwan's ADIZ.

In response, China claims that Taiwan is an inseparable part of its territory and that Chinese military patrols are legitimate and lawful actions necessary to safeguard the safety of the Taiwan Strait and national sovereignty.