[Summary] Military Authorities "North Korean Missile Estimated as SLBM"... Possibility of New SLBM

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The short-range ballistic missile launched by North Korea on the 19th is presumed to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), according to military authorities.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff stated in the afternoon, "At around 10:17 a.m. today (19th), we detected one unidentified short-range ballistic missile, presumed to be an SLBM, launched by North Korea from the sea east of Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, into the East Sea," adding, "We had been closely monitoring related movements in the area."

The missile launched by North Korea is estimated to have flown at an altitude of 60 km and a distance of 590 km. Considering that the Joint Chiefs mentioned the "sea east of Sinpo," the possibility of a test launch from a submarine seems low. Military authorities presume it was an underwater test launch. An underwater test launch refers to a launch conducted from a structure such as a barge.

If this SLBM test launch is confirmed, it will be about two years since the public announcement of a successful underwater test launch in 2019. North Korea has succeeded in underwater test launches of the Pukguksong-1 in 2016 and the Pukguksong-3 in 2019, and has unveiled new SLBMs such as the Pukguksong-4ㅅ and the Pukguksong-5ㅅ at military parades last January.

However, it is reported that an actual submarine launch test has not yet been conducted. If North Korea launched an SLBM this time, it cannot be ruled out that they modified a Romeo-class (1,800-ton) submarine to carry the Pukguksong-3.

For North Korea to operationalize SLBMs, it must build a 3,000-ton class submarine capable of carrying at least three SLBMs.

The Sinpo-class (2,000-ton) submarine currently possessed by North Korea has limited internal space and can carry only one SLBM. A submarine carrying only one SLBM equipped with a nuclear warhead has no strategic significance; at least three must be carried and operated. In particular, the Sinpo-class can only dive to a depth of 50 meters to launch an SLBM. At this depth, movement can be detected by intelligence equipment, making it risky.

There have been ongoing claims that North Korea is pursuing the construction of a 3,000-ton class submarine. Kim Heung-kwang, head of the defector organization NK Intellectual Solidarity, stated, "Under the goal of completing the production of a new 3,000-ton class submarine by October 2017 at the latest, construction has been secretly underway since 2009 in North Korea."