Whether the Liberal Democratic Party Maintains a Solo Majority Is the Key Point
[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] Candidate registration for the Japanese House of Representatives election (general election), which tests the confidence in the Kishida Fumio Cabinet, began on the 19th. The key point to watch is whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) can maintain an outright majority on its own.
The upcoming general election, held on the 31st, will elect all 465 seats in the House of Representatives, combining 289 single-member districts (constituencies) nationwide and 176 proportional representation seats across 11 regions.
Candidate registration is accepted until 5 p.m. on the same day. It is reported that about 1,000 candidates will run.
The ruling LDP is expected to field 336 candidates, its coalition partner Komeito 53, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party 240, the Communist Party 130, and Nippon Ishin no Kai 96 candidates.
This general election, held for the first time in four years, is the first test for voters to evaluate the Kishida Cabinet, which was inaugurated on the 4th. Under the parliamentary system, Kishida became prime minister last month on the 30th after winning the LDP presidential election and being elected by lawmakers.
If the LDP and Komeito secure a majority (at least 233 seats), the current coalition government will be maintained.
In the previous seat count, the LDP held 276 seats (59.4%)?210 in constituencies and 66 proportional seats?while Komeito had 29 seats (8 constituencies and 21 proportional seats). Together, they held 305 seats, accounting for 65.6% of the total.
Prime Minister Kishida stated that the winning line is "the ruling parties (LDP + Komeito) securing a majority." This implies that even if they lose up to 72 seats from the previous count, it would still be considered a victory.
However, many analysts believe that a true victory for Kishida would be the LDP maintaining an outright majority on its own.
The LDP has secured an outright majority in the last three general elections, including the December 2012 election when it regained power.
If Kishida, who has been in office for less than a month, manages to maintain an outright majority, it will be seen as a strong performance. Otherwise, the position of Prime Minister Kishida, who has taken the role of the "face of the election," could be significantly shaken.
The Japanese weekly magazine "Shukan Bunshun" reported on the 13th that, based on an analysis of the House of Representatives election landscape conducted with the Political Public Relations System Research Institute, the LDP is predicted to secure 244 seats.
Although this represents a loss of 31 seats, the LDP is expected to maintain an outright majority.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, which has campaigned for regime change for the first time in nine years, has unified candidates in 213 single-member districts together with four other opposition parties: the Communist Party, the Democratic Party for the People, the Social Democratic Party, and Reiwa Shinsengumi.
There is also growing interest in whether the pro-constitutional amendment forces, including the right-wing opposition party Nippon Ishin no Kai, can secure more than two-thirds of the total seats.
The LDP is pushing for constitutional revision to add provisions related to the Self-Defense Forces under Article 9 of the Constitution. For the amendment proposal to pass, it must receive approval from two-thirds or more of the members present in both the House of Representatives (lower house) and the House of Councillors (upper house).
Meanwhile, Kyodo News reported that the biggest issues in this general election are COVID-19 measures and economic policies, including correcting income disparities.
Debates between the ruling and opposition parties are also expected over whether to continue the policies of the Abe Shinzo and Suga Yoshihide administrations, which lasted about nine years, constitutional revision, and defense policies represented by the possession of enemy base strike capabilities.
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