[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Has North Korea Completed a 3,000-Ton Submarine Equipped with SLBM?

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea launched an unidentified projectile into the East Sea on the 19th. This marks the seventh military demonstration by North Korea this year, and some speculate that North Korea fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

On the same day, the Joint Chiefs of Staff sent a text message to the press corps stating, "At around 10:17 a.m., an unidentified ballistic missile was launched from the Sinpo area in South Hamgyong Province," and added, "We are currently analyzing the specifications of the unidentified projectile."

Since declaring a five-year plan to strengthen its defense capabilities at the 8th Party Congress in January this year, North Korea has conducted test launches of new missiles incorporating new technologies four times last month alone, including long-range cruise missiles, train-launched ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and surface-to-air missiles.

Military circles estimate that the ballistic missile launched by North Korea is likely an SLBM. North Korea succeeded in underwater test launches of the Pukguksong-1 SLBM in 2016 and the Pukguksong-3 SLBM in 2019, and has unveiled new SLBMs such as the Pukguksong-4ㅅ and the Pukguksong-5ㅅ at military parades last January. However, actual submarine launch tests have reportedly not yet been conducted. If North Korea launched an SLBM this time, it cannot be ruled out that they modified a Romeo-class (1,800-ton) submarine to carry the Pukguksong-3.

To operationalize SLBMs, North Korea must build a 3,000-ton class submarine capable of carrying at least three SLBMs.

The Sinpo-class (2,000-ton) submarine currently possessed by North Korea has limited internal space and can carry only one SLBM. A submarine equipped with a single SLBM armed with a nuclear warhead has no strategic significance; at least three must be carried and operated. In particular, the Sinpo-class can only dive to a depth of 50 meters to launch an SLBM. At this depth, movement can be detected by intelligence equipment, posing a risk.

Claims that North Korea is pursuing the construction of a 3,000-ton class submarine have been continuously made. Kim Heung-kwang, head of the NK Intellectual Solidarity, a defector organization, stated, "North Korea has been secretly constructing a new 3,000-ton class submarine since 2009 with the goal of completing it by October 2017 at the latest." According to Kim, North Korea purchased two old submarines from Russia in 2008 and is modifying one of them into a submarine capable of carrying four submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).