Lee Jae-myung and Ruling Party Support Rates Both Decline

Aftermath of Daejang-dong Development Scandal
No 'Convention Effect' After Primary
Yoon Seok-yeol and Hong Joon-pyo Both Lose
In Virtual Matchups with Low 30% Range

Party Support: People Power 38.8%,
Democratic Party 30.3%, 8.5% Point Gap

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] The approval rating of Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate (current governor of Gyeonggi Province), who is struggling amid the Daejang-dong development allegations, remains stuck in a box range and fails to gain upward momentum. Although one might expect a 'convention effect' where approval ratings rise after the party primary, it was found that his approval rating declined along with the party's. The political arena is fiercely debating whether the Daejang-dong controversy is the 'Lee Jae-myung Gate' or the 'People Power Party Gate,' but public opinion seems somewhat tilted toward the former.

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate and Governor of Gyeonggi Province, is taking the oath as a witness at the National Assembly's Public Administration and Security Committee's audit of Gyeonggi Province held at the Gyeonggi Provincial Government on the 18th. Photo by the National Assembly Press Corps

According to a public opinion poll conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) on the 18th commissioned by TBS (survey conducted nationwide from the 15th to 16th among 1,003 people aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), Candidate Lee trailed former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl and Representative Hong Joon-pyo within the margin of error, with his approval rating hovering in the low to mid-30% range. In a hypothetical one-on-one contest between former Prosecutor General Yoon and Candidate Lee, Lee's approval rating dropped by 0.4 percentage points from the previous survey to 35.4%, while Yoon's rose by 3.9 percentage points to 37.1%, swapping their first and second place positions. Candidate Lee was also at a disadvantage within the margin of error in a one-on-one contest against Representative Hong. Hong's approval rating increased by 2.9 percentage points to 35.9%, while Lee's fell by 0.6 percentage points to 34.6%.

Typically, after winning a primary, the final candidate's approval rating rises as attention focuses on them, but Candidate Lee has not enjoyed this convention effect. The 'Daejang-dong political situation,' involving figures from both ruling and opposition parties, appears to be particularly sensitive to Candidate Lee. The ruling party has defended Candidate Lee against opposition demands for a special prosecutor, but public opinion does not seem favorable. On the same day, party support ratings from the same institution showed the People Power Party rising by 3.1 percentage points to 38.8%, while the Democratic Party fell by 2.2 percentage points to 30.3%. The gap between the two parties widened to 8.5 percentage points, beyond the margin of error.

Results from another institution were similar. According to a poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of YTN (survey conducted nationwide from the 12th to 15th among 2,022 people aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), the Democratic Party's approval rating dropped by 1.9 percentage points from the previous survey to 29.5%, marking the lowest level in four months. Meanwhile, the People Power Party rose by 2.0 percentage points to 41.2%, reaching its highest level since its founding. The gap between the two parties' approval ratings widened to 11.7 percentage points, a double-digit gap for the first time in 16 weeks since the third week of June (10.3 percentage points).

In particular, the Democratic Party's approval rating in its stronghold, the Honam region, was only 49.4%, a sharp drop of 13.9 percentage points from the previous survey (63.3%). During the same period, the proportion of undecided voters in the region increased from 7.1% to 13.9%. This appears to be due to an increase in undecided voters who have withheld judgment not only because of the Daejang-dong issue but also due to the 'invalid vote controversy' arising from the primary against former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon.

For more detailed information regarding the public opinion polls, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.