[AKYUNG Poll] The 'Leading Candidates' in Public Perception Are Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Regarding next year's presidential election, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the former Prosecutor General, have emerged as the two leading figures in voter perception. The two candidates, who rank first and second in approval ratings, confirmed their status as 'front-runners' as their 'likelihood of winning next year's presidential election' was surveyed higher than their approval ratings.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

When asked who is more likely to win next year's presidential election, 34.3% answered Lee Jae-myung, and 29.7% answered Yoon Seok-youl. This significantly exceeds the 28.2% approval rating for Lee and the 25.3% for Yoon in the presidential preference survey. Only these two candidates showed a higher likelihood of winning than their approval ratings.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The likelihood of winning survey differs from the approval rating survey, which asks about preferred candidates, in that it asks respondents and their surroundings who they think will win next year's election, serving as an indicator to confirm the 'front-runner.' While approval ratings reflect individual political leanings or personal preferences for candidates, the likelihood of winning reveals the election outlook perceived by respondents. A representative from Win-Gi Korea Consulting explained, "The likelihood of winning reflects the consideration of surrounding public opinion and can be seen as a perception of the front-runner status."

For Hong Joon-pyo of the People Power Party and Lee Nak-yeon, former leader of the Democratic Party, approval ratings were 18.3% and 12.3%, respectively, while their likelihood of winning was lower at 17.2% and 10.3%. This shows that some respondents who declared support for a specific candidate predicted another candidate's victory. Among those who supported Hong Joon-pyo, only 77.4% expected him to win next year's election. Meanwhile, 8.8% and 8% of Hong's supporters predicted Yoon Seok-youl and Lee Jae-myung would win instead. Similarly, only 72.5% of Lee Nak-yeon's supporters foresaw his victory, while 14.7% believed Lee Jae-myung would ultimately win the election.

This phenomenon was also observed among supporters of former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, former Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong, People Power Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo, and former Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon. Conversely, 94.8% of respondents who supported Lee Jae-myung believed he would win next year's election. Likewise, 94.7% of those supporting Yoon Seok-youl predicted his victory in the upcoming election.

▶How was the survey conducted?

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-Gi Korea Consulting targeting voters aged 18 and older nationwide on the 9th and 10th of this month, with 1,023 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.1%. The survey method was 100% mobile ARS using virtual phone numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.