[AK Opinion Poll] Lee Jae-myung Stumbled by Daejang-dong... Falling Behind Yoon and Hong in Head-to-Head Race

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate (current governor of Gyeonggi Province) embroiled in the Daejang-dong preferential development scandal, is trailing in virtual matchups against major People Power Party presidential candidates such as former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl and lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo.

Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, who was elected as the 20th presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, is moving to attend the 2nd plenary session of the 355th extraordinary meeting held at the Gyeonggi Provincial Assembly in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province, on the morning of the 12th.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to a poll conducted by Win-G Korea Consulting commissioned by Asia Economy on the 12th, Lee lost by a 6 percentage point margin, though within the margin of error, in a virtual head-to-head matchup against former Prosecutor General Yoon. In the virtual matchup, Yoon received 45.6% support, while Lee's support rate was 39.6%. Despite Yoon facing a series of setbacks such as writing the character for "king" (王) on his palm during recent broadcast debates, various gaffes, and allegations of report manipulation, the Daejang-dong development controversy appears to have restrained Lee’s expanding support. Investigations into the Daejang-dong development allegations and inconsistencies in Lee’s explanations during Democratic Party presidential candidate debates seem to be hindering his momentum. However, the gap between the two candidates narrowed from 9.5 percentage points in the previous regular survey (September 25-26) to 6 percentage points. This suggests that Lee’s support base consolidated during this crisis phase, demonstrating its strength.

In the matchup against lawmaker Hong, Lee also trailed outside the margin of error. Hong recorded 48% support in the virtual two-person race, leading Lee’s 38.6% by 9.3 percentage points. Compared to the previous regular poll, Hong’s support rose by 1.4 percentage points, while Lee’s dropped by 0.7 percentage points, widening the gap. Relative to former Prosecutor General Yoon, Hong faced fewer negative factors and was able to effectively leverage the issue effect stemming from the Daejang-dong preferential development allegations, which is considered a major reason for the widening support gap.

Notably, in the previous virtual two-person race against Lee, only 78% of People Power Party supporters expressed support for Hong, whereas in this survey, 85% supported him. Hong has thus gained competitiveness comparable to Yoon’s level (88.1%) even within the party base, which wields 50% influence in the People Power Party presidential primary.

Meanwhile, in the conservative opposition presidential candidate suitability poll following the People Power Party’s second cut-off on the 8th, former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min and former Jeju Province Governor Won Hee-ryong stood out. Despite the reduced number of candidates after the second cut-off, support for former Prosecutor General Yoon and lawmaker Hong declined in this poll, while support for former lawmaker Yoo and former governor Won increased.

In the conservative opposition presidential candidate suitability poll, Yoon, who had formed the top two with Hong, saw his support drop from 29.5% to 29%, and Hong’s support fell from 33.5% to 28.1%. Conversely, Yoo, ranked third, rose from 10.1% to 13.2%, and Won also increased significantly from 1.4% to 3.9%. Increased interest in Yoo and Won through broadcast debates and other factors is considered a key reason.

▶ How was the survey conducted?

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and over on September 9-10, with 1,023 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.1%. The survey method was 100% mobile ARS using virtual phone numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.