[AK Poll] "Regime Change to People Power Party" 51.7% vs "Democratic Party Regime Reestablishment" 40.5%

High Proportion of Regime Change Support Across All Age Groups Except 40s

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] A survey found that more than half of the people want a regime change by the People Power Party in next year’s presidential election.

On the 12th, Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response) targeting 1,023 voters aged 18 or older nationwide from the 9th to the 10th. When asked about their preference for the next presidential election, 51.7% responded that they want a regime change to the People Power Party, which was higher than the 40.5% who wanted the ruling Democratic Party of Korea to retain power.

Except for those in their 40s, the proportion of people wanting a regime change to the People Power Party was high across all age groups, especially among those in their 20s (60.4%) and those aged 60 and above (60.5%). The only age group with a higher response favoring the Democratic Party’s retention of power was the 40s (56.8%).

By region, the desire for regime change was prominent in Seoul (54.6%), Daegu-Gyeongbuk (74%), and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (65%), while Gwangju-Jeonbuk-Jeonnam (72.8%) leaned toward regime retention.

It is also noteworthy that within the ruling party’s support base, the opinion favoring ‘regime change’ was higher than the opposition’s support base favoring ‘regime retention.’ Among People Power Party supporters, 95.9% favored regime change (1.6% for regime retention), showing a strong consensus against handing over the next administration to the Democratic Party. However, among Democratic Party supporters, 90.8% favored regime retention (3.0% for regime change), indicating somewhat less cohesion. Among Democratic Party supporters, 3.8% preferred ‘other party candidates or independent candidates to win,’ and 2.5% were undecided. Among Justice Party and Open Democratic Party supporters, 32.2% and 9.2%, respectively, favored regime change to the People Power Party, and among the politically unaffiliated, a majority (55.4%) wanted regime change by the People Power Party.

This trend was similar in other institutional surveys. According to a poll released the previous day by the Korea Social Opinion Institute (commissioned by TBS, conducted on 1,002 people nationwide from the 8th to the 9th, with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points), 51.5% responded that an opposition candidate must win for regime change, exceeding half. Compared to the survey conducted last month (September 3), this is an increase of 1.7 percentage points. Meanwhile, the response that a ruling party candidate must win for regime retention dropped by 3.0 percentage points to 39.7% during the same period.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy commissioning Win-G Korea Consulting, targeting voters aged 18 or older nationwide from the 9th to the 10th, with 1,023 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.1%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, and the sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.