[Global Focus] The US, China, and Russia's Race for Hypersonic Missiles Shaking the International Security Landscape

Russia Achieves First Successful Hypersonic Missile Launch from Submarine
US Succeeds in HAWC Test After April Test Launch Failure
China Deployed DF-17 in 2019... US and Russia Begin Technology Pursuit

The test launch of the hypersonic missile Hwasong-8, revealed by North Korea on the 29th of last month. The Korean Central News Agency reported, "On the morning of the 28th, the National Defense Science Institute conducted a test launch of the newly developed hypersonic missile Hwasong-8 at Doyang-ri, Ryongrim County, Jagang Province." [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Following North Korea's announcement on the 28th of last month that it conducted a test launch of the hypersonic missile known as 'Hwasong-8,' the competition among major powers surrounding Northeast Asia to develop hypersonic missiles is expected to intensify further.

Hypersonic missiles are called 'game changers' as they combine the advantages of strategic ballistic missiles, which traditionally carry nuclear warheads, and tactical cruise missiles mainly used in localized warfare. It is known that current missile defense systems cannot intercept hypersonic missiles, raising concerns that they will significantly alter the security landscape not only in Northeast Asia but also internationally.

◆MD Neutralization...Changing the Security Landscape

On the 4th (local time), the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the successful test launch of the Zircon hypersonic missile, developed domestically, from a nuclear submarine. This marks the first successful launch of a hypersonic missile from a submarine. Zircon is a hypersonic cruise missile that Russia announced it successfully test-launched in October last year and, along with the Avangard, which was deployed in 2019, is considered one of Russia's representative hypersonic weapons.

Just before North Korea announced the successful test launch of the Hwasong-8, the United States also publicly showcased its hypersonic missile capabilities. The U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced on the 27th of last month (local time) that it had completed a test launch of the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC) missile. HAWC is known as a test launch phase project for hypersonic missile development pursued by the U.S. Department of Defense since 2014.

The reason major powers are rushing to develop hypersonic missile capabilities is that hypersonic missiles are expected to become strategic weapons that can drastically change the global security landscape. Hypersonic missiles refer to missiles with a launch speed of at least Mach 5 (about 6,120 km/h), five times the speed of sound. Unlike ballistic missiles, which follow a fixed parabolic trajectory, hypersonic missiles can maneuver and change direction, and unlike cruise missiles that struggle to exceed the speed of sound, they fly at extremely high speeds, making them reportedly impossible to intercept with existing missile defense systems.

◆U.S. Accelerates Development Late

The AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), a hypersonic missile under development by the United States
[Image source: U.S. Air Force website]

Although the United States succeeded in the HAWC test launch, it is criticized for lagging behind competitors such as Russia and China, who are already known to have deployed hypersonic missiles in operational service.

According to CNN, in April, the U.S. Air Force conducted a test launch of the hypersonic missile 'AGM-183A Arrow (ARRW)' at Edwards Air Force Base in California but failed. This missile is expected to reach speeds up to Mach 20, and if successfully developed, it would be capable of intercepting targets anywhere on Earth within 10 minutes.

Additionally, the Army and Navy are jointly developing the 'Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB)' and Boeing's 'X-51 Waverider,' with test launches continuing. The U.S. plans to equip hypersonic missiles on the Army's Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) vehicles and the Navy's Virginia-class attack nuclear submarines' vertical launch systems to enhance operational capabilities.

The reason the U.S. has lagged behind Russia and China in deploying hypersonic missiles is reportedly due to missile development restrictions under the nuclear arms reduction policies of the previous Barack Obama administration. The U.S. hypersonic missile development officially began in earnest after the Donald Trump administration announced its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2019.

◆Russia Deploys Missiles Up to Mach 27

Launch scene of the Russian hypersonic missile Avangard, deployed in 2019 [Image source= Russian Ministry of Defense website]

Currently, Russia is known to be the most advanced in hypersonic missile technology. Russia has developed and deployed several hypersonic missiles, including the Avangard missile, which reportedly reaches speeds up to Mach 27, as well as the Kinzhal (Mach 10) and Zircon (Mach 9).

However, concerns over technology leaks have made it difficult to control research institutions and scientists. According to Russia's Interfax news agency, around August, Alexander Kuranov, director of Russia's Hypersonic Systems Research Institute (HSRI), was arrested on charges of leaking classified information, and many scientists are believed to have been involved in technology leaks. Kuranov is known as a top defense industry technologist who has participated in hypersonic vehicle research since the Soviet era in the 1970s.

Accordingly, it is estimated that a significant portion of Russia's core hypersonic missile technology may have been leaked to competing countries such as the United States and China. Interfax reported, citing anonymous sources, that "Kuranov was confirmed to have passed specific research secrets to foreigners."

◆China First Revealed in 2019...U.S. and Russia Begin Serious Pursuit

The Dongfeng (DF)-17 hypersonic missile of China, unveiled on October 1, 2019, during China's National Day [Image source=Yonhap News]

China attracted attention by unveiling the Dongfeng (DF)-17, known as a hypersonic missile, for the first time at the 70th anniversary military parade in October 2019. The DF-17 carries a nuclear warhead-type hypersonic glide vehicle capable of flying at speeds up to Mach 10 and can change its trajectory mid-flight, allowing it to penetrate U.S. missile defense systems, according to the Chinese government.

China has also been developing hypersonic missiles since 2014, developing glide vehicles for initial testing and conducting more than nine flight tests. The DF-17 missile was deployed immediately after its public unveiling in 2019. Additionally, China announced the successful flight test of the Xingkong-2 missile, capable of flying at speeds between Mach 5 and 6, in 2018.

However, since both the U.S. and Russia have developed and possess hypersonic missiles exceeding Mach 20, China is considered to have weaker capabilities and is accelerating the development of more powerful missiles. According to local media such as China Central Television (CCTV), the Chinese Academy of Sciences' technical research institute is expected to complete a wind tunnel capable of testing glide vehicles at speeds up to Mach 30 by next year, which will be used for hypersonic missile development.