[Agyeong Poll] Lee Nak-yeon 38.9% vs Hong Joon-pyo 47.7%... Hong Leads

Leading by 8.8 Percentage Points
Hong Also Dominates Among the Undecided Voters

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jinyoung]

In a hypothetical one-on-one matchup between ruling party presidential candidate former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon and opposition candidate Hong Joon-pyo of the People Power Party, Hong was found to be leading Lee beyond the margin of error.

On the 28th, Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll from the 25th to 26th targeting 1,016 voters nationwide aged 18 and older. The survey (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response) asked, "If former leader Lee Nak-yeon and Hong Joon-pyo face off in the next presidential election, whom would you support?" Lee received 38.9% support, while Hong recorded 47.7%. Hong led Lee by 8.8 percentage points. Other candidates accounted for 6.1%, and none or unsure responses were 7.3%.

Compared to the previous survey conducted in the second week of September, Lee Nak-yeon’s support dropped by 1.0 percentage point, whereas Hong Joon-pyo’s support rose by 1.6 percentage points, widening the gap between the two candidates.

Lee Nak-yeon showed relative strength among voters in their 40s (47.2%) and in the Honam region (66.6%), while Hong Joon-pyo led in all other age groups except those in their 40s, as well as in Seoul (50.2%), Gyeonggi-Incheon (46.1%), Daegu-Gyeongbuk (56.8%), Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (56.8%), and Gangwon-Jeju (50.0%).

Among swing voters, known as the undecided group, Hong also held the advantage. Within this group, Hong received 37.4% support, while Lee received 33.1%, giving Hong a 4.4 percentage point lead.

By party support, 73.6% of Democratic Party supporters said they backed Lee Nak-yeon, while 78.3% of People Power Party supporters said they supported Hong Joon-pyo.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 25th to 26th, targeting voters aged 18 and older nationwide, with 1,016 respondents and an overall response rate of 8.4%. The methodology used was wireless ARS with 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted using cell weighting based on gender, age, and region according to the resident registration population data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of January 2021. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.