High Possibility No Majority Winner in First Vote
First Place Confirmed: Kono Taro
Second Vote Could Flip Outcome Depending on Who Takes Second Place
▲(From left) Fumio Kishida, former Chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, Taro Kono, Minister in charge of Administrative Reform, Sanae Takaichi, former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, Seiko Noda, Acting Secretary-General of the LDP [Image source=EPA Yonhap News]
[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] With the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election vote, which effectively decides the next Japanese prime minister, just two days away, competition over the second-place candidate is intensifying.
Since no candidate secured a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff between the top two candidates is highly likely, and depending on who comes in second, the next Japanese prime minister could change.
In the first round of voting, where 382 LDP members of the National Diet and 382 party members and supporters each cast 382 votes for a total of 764 votes, Taro Kono, Minister in charge of Administrative Reform, is expected to take the lead among the four candidates.
Following him, Fumio Kishida, former Chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, and Sanae Takaichi, former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, are analyzed to be in second and third place respectively.
However, depending on the undecided Diet members' leanings, the second and third places could switch.
The Yomiuri Shimbun reported on the 27th that combining the support trend survey conducted among LDP Diet members until the 26th and the party member survey conducted on the 18th and 19th, Kono appears to have secured 280 votes, with 103 from Diet members and 177 from party members and supporters.
Kishida, in second place, has a total of 221 votes, with 127 from Diet members and 94 from party members and supporters, while Takaichi is estimated to have about 168 votes, with 82 from Diet members and 86 from party members and supporters.
As of the survey date, Takaichi trails Kishida by 53 votes.
Seiko Noda, acting secretary-general of the LDP, remains at 46 votes, with 21 from Diet members and 25 from party members and supporters.
There are 49 Diet members (floating votes) whose voting intentions are unknown.
According to Yomiuri's analysis, Kono is leading but has not reached a majority (383 votes or more), and even if he secures all floating votes, he would still fall short of a majority.
Although Kishida is ahead of Takaichi in the survey, recent reports suggest that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been actively persuading Diet members, leading to a rapid expansion of Takaichi's support. Considering this, there is a possibility that she could absorb many floating votes and advance to the runoff in second place.
▲ Sanae Takaichi, Former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications [Image source=AP Yonhap News]
Amid this, attention is focused on who will secure second place to advance to the runoff.
If Kono and Kishida face off in the runoff, Kishida's chances of overtaking are being noted.
In the runoff, Diet members still have 382 votes as in the first round, but party members and supporters' votes decrease to 47, which is seen as advantageous to Kishida, who has secured majority support among Diet members.
In particular, veteran LDP Diet members are wary of Kono, who is unpredictable, having previously advocated for nuclear phase-out and suddenly scrapped the Aegis Ashore missile defense system.
Because of this, it is analyzed that many of those who supported Takaichi in the first round may back Kishida in the runoff to check Kono.
▲Seiko Noda, Acting Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]
On the other hand, if Kono and Takaichi face off in the runoff, there is speculation that Kono has a winning chance.
Those who supported the relatively dovish Kishida in the first round are unlikely to vote for Takaichi in the runoff, as she has clearly shown far-right tendencies, including stating she would continue visiting the Yasukuni Shrine.
Regarding this, the Asahi Shimbun reported on the 27th that voices within Kishida's camp say, "It is difficult to support Takaichi in terms of ideological beliefs."
Meanwhile, in Japan, which adopts a parliamentary cabinet system, the ruling party's president becomes the prime minister.
The LDP presidential election will be held on the 29th of this month, and the next Japanese prime minister will be elected at the extraordinary Diet session convened on the 4th of next month.
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