[Global Column] The Political Economy of Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal

Last April, U.S. President Joe Biden stated that "it is time to end America's longest war" and announced plans to withdraw U.S. troops who had been stationed in Afghanistan for 20 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. On August 30, as the last flight for U.S. troop withdrawal and civilian evacuation took off from Kabul Airport in Afghanistan, the U.S. Department of Defense officially declared the completion of the Afghanistan withdrawal and the end of the evacuation mission. Thus, the Afghanistan War, which began as an attack against the Taliban regime that harbored al-Qaeda?the perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks?ended after 20 years at a colossal cost of $2 trillion.

Afghanistan, which had been under U.S. influence for 20 years, fell into tremendous chaos after the Taliban regained power following the U.S. troop withdrawal. Consequently, voices criticizing President Biden's withdrawal order emerged. Former U.S. President Donald Trump condemned the decision, calling the Afghanistan withdrawal "the greatest disgrace in history." Bob Menendez, chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a Democrat, also criticized it as "a clear and fatally flawed decision." The Biden administration likely did not anticipate that the Taliban would quickly regain power after the U.S. withdrawal, leading to the severe chaos currently unfolding. However, despite the foreseeable risks of the Afghanistan withdrawal, there must have been reasons behind the Biden administration's decision.

First, the Biden administration probably judged that it was necessary to concentrate resources on strategic competition with China. Indeed, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken defended the legitimacy of the withdrawal by stating that continuing to expend military resources in Afghanistan would be exactly what strategic competitors like China would want. After the 9/11 attacks, the Bush administration focused on military intervention in the Middle East. However, the Obama administration declared a "pivot to Asia," shifting U.S. foreign policy focus from the Middle East to China, which was continued by the Trump administration's Indo-Pacific strategy. The Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan can be seen as a clearer formalization of this shift in U.S. foreign policy direction.

Moreover, the necessity to withdraw from Afghanistan to focus on strategic competition with China also indicates that the U.S. currently does not have abundant resources to utilize. This may be a result of the long-term decline of U.S. hegemony, but it also reflects the current "guns versus butter" dilemma facing the U.S. The Biden administration needs to reduce military spending as much as possible to secure massive funding to address the economic problems caused by COVID-19. The Afghanistan withdrawal demonstrated that the Biden administration prioritizes domestic economic concerns?the butter?over international security?the guns. Additionally, the Biden administration will likely seek cost reductions in its future China strategy. Therefore, U.S. allies, including South Korea, may face demands to share the costs of the China strategy. If such cost-sharing demands materialize, South Korea will be drawn into the vortex of the U.S.-China hegemonic competition.

Jae-Hwan Jung, Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Ulsan