'Lee Confident of Direct Advancement to Finals' vs. 'Lee Fighting for Survival with 120,000 Vote Difference'

Lee Jae-myung's Cumulative Votes in 6 Locations at 53.01%
If Current Momentum Continues, Majority Vote Expected
Remaining Electorate Exceeds Half
Lee Nak-yeon Gains Momentum with Wins in Gwangju and Jeonnam

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] In the Democratic Party presidential primary, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung is pushing for a "direct advance to the general election without a runoff," while former party leader Lee Nak-yeon is fighting desperately to close the 120,000-vote gap with Governor Lee. Since the number of voters yet to cast ballots exceeds those who have already voted, tensions between the two camps over whether a runoff will be necessary are expected to reach a peak.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Democratic Party on the 27th, Governor Lee has surpassed the majority vote threshold in 6 out of the 11 primary locations, making a direct advance to the general election possible based on current scores. In the six primaries held so far and the first Super Week, Governor Lee secured a cumulative vote share of 53.01% (341,858 votes). Former leader Lee Nak-yeon received 34.48% (222,353 votes), with a gap of 18.53 percentage points (119,505 votes) between the two candidates.

The number of voters who have participated so far is 955,021 (voter turnout 70.02%), which is less than half of the total 2.16 million voters. Having recorded 1 win and 5 losses in the six primaries, former leader Lee’s key challenge is to reduce the 120,000-vote gap in the remaining contests. If no candidate secures a majority by the election end date of October 10, a runoff will be held 4 to 5 days later. Therefore, it is urgent for former leader Lee to prevent Governor Lee’s majority dominance. The remaining primaries include 5 locations (405,000 voters), the second Super Week (496,000 voters), and the third Super Week (305,000 voters), totaling 1,206,000 voters still to cast ballots.

Last weekend, former leader Lee won a victory in Gwangju and Jeonnam, the Democratic Party’s stronghold, and has since raised his guard against Governor Lee while building momentum. On the morning of the same day, former leader Lee held a press conference at the Busan City Council, urging the establishment of a government joint special investigation headquarters regarding the Daejang-dong development corruption allegations. While criticizing Rep. Kwak Sang-do of the People Power Party and the party itself as fundamentally corrupt, he also pressured Governor Lee by stating that the investigation should be expanded comprehensively. This reflects the judgment that if the Daejang-dong allegations affect the metropolitan area’s political landscape, it could help stop Governor Lee’s runaway lead. Former leader Lee’s camp expressed optimism, saying, "The cohesion in recruiting the second group of voters was stronger than in the first."

However, the battle in the metropolitan area, Governor Lee’s home turf, may not be an easy fight for former leader Lee. According to a Realmeter poll conducted in the second week of September (September 6-7, 2,019 respondents aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of ±2.2% at a 95% confidence level), Governor Lee and former leader Lee received 28.4% and 26.7% support respectively in Seoul, but Governor Lee led significantly with 40.6% support in Incheon and Gyeonggi compared to former leader Lee’s 23.2%. The Gyeonggi voter base is 164,000, larger than Seoul’s 144,000. It is also noteworthy whether Rep. Kim Du-kwan, who has a support base in Yeongnam and recently declared a mid-campaign withdrawal to endorse Governor Lee, will influence the remaining primaries in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam.