Followed by NAND Flash Decline from Q4... Expected to Drop Up to 5%

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] Following the representative memory semiconductor D-RAM, NAND flash prices are expected to decline starting from the fourth quarter.

According to Taiwanese market research firm TrendForce on the 26th, the average contract price of NAND flash in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to fall by 0-5% compared to the previous quarter. NAND prices rose by about 5-10% on average in the third quarter of this year. Specifically, prices for enterprise solid-state drives (SSD) used in corporate data centers increased by 13-18%, while client SSDs rose by 3-8%.

(Data provided by TrendForce)

TrendForce analyzed, "Shipments of consumer electronics such as smartphones, Chromebooks, and TVs in the second half of this year were lower than expected," adding, "Demand for retail storage products such as memory cards and USB drives remains sluggish." They further stated, "As customers' inventory levels steadily rise, procurement momentum will be further limited," and added, "The shortage of NAND controller ICs is also being resolved due to gradual demand weakening."

Looking at price forecasts by major products, client SSD prices are expected to decline by 3-8% in the fourth quarter. This is interpreted as being influenced by reduced laptop demand as COVID-19 vaccinations spread in major advanced countries such as North America and Europe. On the other hand, TrendForce predicted that enterprise SSD orders will increase and inventories will grow. Accordingly, contract prices in the fourth quarter are estimated to rise by about 0-5% compared to the previous quarter.

Additionally, TrendForce expects eMMC prices to fall by about 5-10% in the fourth quarter. In the first half of this year, concerns over NAND controller shortages led to a rapid increase in customer inventories, which in turn reduced new demand. The price of 3D NAND wafers is forecasted to drop by up to 10-15% in the fourth quarter of this year.

Earlier, TrendForce predicted that D-RAM prices, which had been rising until the third quarter, would decline by about 3-8% in the fourth quarter. By product, PC D-RAM prices are expected to fall by about 5-10%, while server D-RAM and graphics D-RAM prices are estimated to decrease by about 0-5%.