[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] Experts generally gave a positive assessment of North Korea's Vice Department Director Kim Yo-jong's conciliatory stance on the 'end-of-war declaration' and inter-Korean summit expressed again through a statement just one day after her previous one. There is speculation that the possibility of inter-Korean dialogue triggered by the upcoming Beijing Olympics next year played a significant role, but a realistic view warns against excessive optimism.
◆ Kim Yo-jong's conciliatory gesture toward the South... Experts also 'Positive' = On the 26th, Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies analyzed Kim's statement from the previous day, saying, "Mentioning the reinstallation of the liaison office and the inter-Korean summit again means that North Korea may attempt to restore inter-Korean relations first before engaging in talks with the U.S., provided that the South shows some practical trust-building measures."
In the statement released through the Korean Central News Agency the previous evening, Kim Yo-jong, on a personal basis, said, "I believe that a meaningful end-of-war declaration will be made without delay, and issues related to improving relations such as the reinstallation of the inter-Korean joint liaison office and inter-Korean summit meetings can be resolved soon through constructive discussions."
Kim Yo-jong issued another statement on the 25th, just one day after the one on the 24th, apparently because she judged that the 'true intention' was not conveyed in the previous statement. Professor Yang said, "She issued the statement again to provide additional content and explanation," adding, "It seems that after monitoring internal developments on our side following yesterday's statement, she issued another statement despite the weekend."
Experts analyzed this statement as a conciliatory gesture toward the South. Professor Lim Eul-chul of Gyeongnam National University said, "This statement basically follows the line of the statement on the 24th but is a step forward in conciliatory gestures toward the South," explaining, "While the statement on the 24th emphasized only hostile remarks at the end, this time it emphasizes fairness (double standards) and maintaining mutual respect."
Jung Dae-jin, head of the Peace Center at Hanpyeong Policy Research Institute, also noted, "It is noteworthy that North Korea lowered the level and threshold of its demands," analyzing, "It is an encouraging proposal for the development of inter-Korean relations and the promotion of peace on the Korean Peninsula."
◆ North Korea also considering meeting on the occasion of the Beijing Olympics = There is also analysis that Kim Yo-jong's more progressive stance on the end-of-war declaration compared to the statement on the 24th was made after consultations with China.
Jung Sung-jang, head of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, analyzed, "Considering that the Rodong Sinmun on the 25th published Kim Jong-un's reply to General Secretary Xi Jinping, this sudden change in Kim Yo-jong's attitude likely involved important consultations with China."
The previous day, the Korean Central News Agency reported that Kim Jong-un sent a reply on the 22nd to Xi Jinping's congratulatory message on the 73rd anniversary of the founding of the North Korean regime, stating, "I am very pleased that the comradely unity and cooperation between North Korea and China are continuously strengthening in the joint struggle to crush the vicious challenges and obstruction acts of hostile forces and to defend and glorify socialism." North Korea and China have been exchanging congratulatory messages several times this year to mark the 60th anniversary of the North Korea-China friendship treaty, tightening bilateral relations.
Jung said, "The Chinese government hopes that the inter-Korean leaders will meet again around the Beijing Olympics next year and that North and South Korea will move toward reconciliation and cooperation. North Korea, too, cannot maintain closed borders and isolation forever, so it is presumed to be seriously considering resuming inter-Korean dialogue," adding, "Ahead of the Beijing Olympics next year, North Korea may be considering a four-party end-of-war declaration and inter-Korean summit in Beijing involving North Korea, South Korea, the U.S., and China, starting with restoring inter-Korean communication lines and reinstalling the inter-Korean joint liaison office."
◆ Premature optimism is 'taboo'... Need to watch more closely = However, there are also criticisms that it is difficult to expect rapid progress in inter-Korean relations based on this statement alone. North Korea set the abolition of 'double standards' as a condition, but realistically, it is not easy to meet this.
In the statement, Kim Yo-jong said, "The U.S. and South Korea's double standards on North Korea, which label all our self-defensive actions as threatening 'provocations' while glorifying their own military buildup as 'securing deterrence against North Korea,' are illogical and childish claims." She is implying that North Korea wants its nuclear and missile development to be recognized as legitimate.
Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the University of North Korean Studies said, "The core sentence of this statement is 'Once again, we clearly say that we will never tolerate double standards,'" adding, "It is not a role to persuade the U.S., but a sincere plea for the South to change itself."
He continued, "Ultimately, former President Moon Jae-in's remarks during the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test and the proposal for an end-of-war declaration gave North Korea a justification," adding, "Because the current administration is eager for achievements and is impatient near the end of its term, North Korea exploited this weakness."
There are also criticisms that North Korea is ignoring the international atmosphere and showing erratic behavior. Jung Dae-jin, head of the Peace Center at Hanpyeong Policy Research Institute, said, "North Korea's erratic behavior and attitude as if it alone holds the decision-making power over inter-Korean relations will be an obstacle to fostering favorable public opinion among South Korean citizens," adding, "To resolve fundamental issues such as sanctions relief, large-scale economic cooperation, and improvement of North Korea-U.S. relations that North Korea desires, it will not be enough to deal only with our government; North Korea must also clearly recognize the need to consider public opinion in our society and the international atmosphere."
Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies also predicted, "If North Korea only insists on abolishing double standards and hostile policies toward the North to evade crisis and justify its military buildup by presenting disguised peaceful content, it will face criticism from the international community."
Jung Sung-jang of the Sejong Institute's North Korea Research Center expressed a cautious stance, saying, "The South's abolition of hostile policies toward the North that North Korea demands may mean a complete halt to South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises and stopping South Korea's acquisition of advanced U.S. weapons," adding, "It is inappropriate to overinterpret Kim Yo-jong's conciliatory remarks toward the South or fall into overly optimistic expectations."
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