Election Strategies of 3rd-4th Place Candidates from Both Parties Including Chu Mi-ae, Yoo Seung-min, and Choi Jae-hyung
Despite Low Winning Chances, 'Possibility of Reversal,' 'Succession Planning,' and 'Self-Suggestion'
Although there are still six months left, current opinion polls narrow down the leading presidential candidates from both the ruling and opposition parties to four: Lee Jae-myung, Lee Nak-yeon, Yoon Seok-youl, and Hong Joon-pyo. However, as you know, there are roughly 20 candidates actively campaigning for the presidency. Few people believe that the remaining dozen or so candidates have a high chance of staging a dramatic comeback and entering the Blue House. So why do they declare their intention to complete the presidential race, spending a lot of money and time? Let's take a look at the current situation of some candidates who are showing somewhat meaningful support rates: ruling party’s Chu Mi-ae and Chung Sye-kyun, and opposition’s Yoo Seung-min and Choi Jae-hyung. (Please understand that only names are used here for clarity, excluding titles.)
Chu Mi-ae currently ranks third among six Democratic Party candidates (including Chung Sye-kyun) with a support rate of 7.7%, following Lee Jae-myung (48.1%) and Lee Nak-yeon (33.2%) (The opinion polls mentioned below were commissioned by this publication and conducted biweekly by WinG Korea Consulting. For more details, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website).
Although her support rate is far behind the top two, the important factor may not be 'electability.' Lee Jae-myung is trying to secure a majority in the primary to avoid a runoff, while Lee Nak-yeon is in a desperate situation trying to push the race to a runoff for a last-minute comeback. The Democratic Party primary holds a runoff between the first and second place candidates if no one achieves a majority. In this context, Chu Mi-ae’s roughly 7% support could be a very concerning figure for the two frontrunners.
Another noteworthy point is the ‘People Power Party supporter votes’ held by Chu Mi-ae and Chung Sye-kyun. While they show about 3-7% support among Democratic Party supporters, their support among People Power Party supporters is actually higher, ranging from 3% to 9%.
Of course, there is the issue of ‘reverse voting,’ but excluding that, it means that some People Power Party supporters who do not find a suitable candidate among their own party’s candidates like Yoon Seok-youl or Hong Joon-pyo are willing to support Chu Mi-ae or Chung Sye-kyun. In the future, during the Democratic Party runoff or the final presidential election phase, whom Chu Mi-ae supports could become a very important variable. Although Chung Sye-kyun has already declared his withdrawal, analyzing whom his supporters will back remains meaningful.
On the opposition side, Yoo Seung-min and Choi Jae-hyung are in a similar situation. Yoo Seung-min currently holds about 4-6% support among People Power Party supporters, while Choi Jae-hyung was in the low to mid-teens but recently dropped to around 3%. However, they also have the characteristic of receiving more votes from the opposing Democratic Party supporters.
It is quite unusual that they receive more support from the opposing party than from their own, but Yoo Seung-min records a high support rate of 10-17% among Democratic Party supporters. Of course, since Democratic Party supporters were asked which People Power Party candidate they support excluding their own party’s candidates, the actual likelihood of them voting for Yoo Seung-min is low. Nevertheless, whether ruling or opposition, there are always some voters who feel no candidate in their own party is appealing. For the top two candidates, uniting with candidates who can attract these so-called ‘swing votes’ or securing their endorsement is certainly an attractive prospect.
So what do Chu Mi-ae and Chung Sye-kyun hope to gain through this ‘casting vote’? There are many analyses about the psychology and strategy of politicians who run despite low chances of winning. A representative analysis is that they aim to conduct a strong campaign in a major election to solidify their future political standing?a kind of investment. Another possibility is that after securing a certain level of support, they attempt to unify with a ‘viable candidate’ and, if that candidate wins, secure a position in the administration.
Also, due to the strong self-confidence typical of politicians, some run because they cannot resist the ‘lust for power,’ or they misread public opinion and hypnotize themselves with the belief that ‘they really have a chance to win.’ Surrounded by fervent supporters, clear judgment becomes difficult, and combined with the conviction of being ‘the best,’ it can lead to an unstoppable situation (there are quite a few politicians like this).
Chu Mi-ae has experience as party leader and minister, and Chung Sye-kyun has served as National Assembly Speaker and Prime Minister. Aside from the presidency, there are few prestigious positions left for them to pursue. If they ran with the intention of securing a position in the next administration through unification or endorsement, they might find that offensive. Therefore, it is possible that their candidacies are part of preparations for the next presidential election five years later or stem from narcissism (self-love, 自己愛) believing ‘there is no one else to save this country but me.’
On the other hand, Yoo Seung-min served as the ruling party’s floor leader, and Choi Jae-hyung is a former judge and head of the Board of Audit and Inspection. In terms of ‘credentials,’ they may have a stronger desire to secure a position compared to Chu Mi-ae and Chung Sye-kyun. Since Yoon Seok-youl and Hong Joon-pyo are in a close race for first and second place in the People Power Party, it will be interesting to see what role Yoo and Choi will play in the final stages of the presidential election.
The important point is that even if their support rates are not in the winning range, 8% is more valuable than 7%, and 4% more than 3% as a ‘variable’ in the market. In other words, to align with their true intentions for running, they have clear incentives to strive to increase their support rates. Therefore, it does not seem necessary to dismiss their reckless challenges as ‘incomprehensible’ behavior. After all, the choice is theirs, and the cost is theirs to bear.
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