LDP Leadership Election Announced Today... Four-Way Race for 'Post Suga'

▲Four candidates who have announced their candidacy for the LDP presidential election. (From left) Fumio Kishida, former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman; Taro Kono, Minister for Administrative Reform; Sanae Takaichi, former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications; Seiko Noda, Acting Secretary-General of the LDP. [Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election, which will decide the next Prime Minister of Japan, will be announced on the 17th.

According to Japanese media such as NHK and Kyodo News on the 17th, the registration for candidacy for the LDP presidency will begin at 10 a.m. on the same day. The registration will close within 15 minutes.

Due to Japan's parliamentary system, the LDP president, who is the leader of the dominant ruling party, is effectively elected as the Prime Minister of Japan.

Therefore, four candidates are expected to run in this LDP presidential election, which is essentially to select the next Prime Minister: Administrative Reform Minister Taro Kono, former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Fumio Kishida, former Internal Affairs Minister Sanae Takaichi, and acting LDP Secretary-General Seiko Noda.

The four candidates will deliver speeches and hold a joint press conference in the afternoon of the same day.

The LDP presidential election, with voting and counting scheduled for the 29th, will be decided by combining 383 votes from party-affiliated members of the National Diet and 383 votes from party members and supporters; the candidate who secures the majority will be elected.

If no candidate obtains a majority in the first round, a runoff vote between the top two candidates will be held on the same day. In this runoff, 439 votes will be counted, consisting of 383 votes from Diet members and 47 local votes from the 47 prefectures (d?to-fu-ken).

The new LDP president is expected to be elected as the new Prime Minister, succeeding Prime Minister Suga, at the extraordinary Diet session scheduled to convene on the 4th of next month.

In opinion polls conducted by major Japanese media on the preferred next Prime Minister, Minister Kono, who ranks first, is expected to have an advantage in the vote involving over one million LDP party members, as he has also gained support from Shigeru Ishiba, former LDP Secretary-General, who ranks second in preference.

However, with the four-way race, it is predicted that no candidate will secure a majority in the first round.

The increase to four candidates, following the announcement of candidacy by the well-known and reform-minded acting Secretary-General Noda the previous day, is considered a variable that could affect the election outcome.

Regarding this, a Diet member from the Kishida faction was quoted by Kyodo News as saying, "It is highly likely that the decision will not be made in the first round and will proceed to a runoff."

The leader of the Kishida faction is former Policy Research Council Chairman Kishida.

The Kishida camp is reportedly expecting that if the runoff is between Kishida and Kono, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the de facto leader of the largest LDP faction, the Hosoda faction, will support them.

In the runoff, the weight of Diet members' votes will be much greater, and factional dynamics within the LDP are expected to have a larger impact.

There is also speculation that even if the popular Kono ranks first in the first round, if the mainstream forces within the party supporting the second and third place candidates unite, Kono could be defeated in the runoff.