[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Did North Korea Pre-Detect Cruise Missiles?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Defense Minister Seo Wook has sparked controversy by revealing that he was aware in advance of North Korea's long-range cruise missile launch. When asked whether he had detected prior signs of the launch, he said, "I cannot provide detailed information," leaving it unclear whether he was truly aware.

On the 14th, during a government inspection session at the National Assembly, Minister Seo stated in response to lawmakers' questions about whether the North Korean cruise missile launch was detected in advance, "It was detected using combined ROK-US assets."

Earlier, in response to a question from Kim Byung-joo of the Democratic Party of Korea, Seo said, "It was detected using combined ROK-US assets, and initial analysis is underway." Although he could not provide specific answers due to the information being Special Intelligence (SI) obtained through signals interception, he added that detailed analysis is being conducted in cooperation with the US.

In response, Shin Won-sik of the People Power Party, a former military officer, raised his voice, saying, "This is the fifth time North Korea has launched a cruise missile, and before April 4, 2020, announcements were made immediately. Does it make sense to say they don't announce because of SI?" However, Minister Seo maintained his position, stating, "The basic policy is not to announce cruise missile launches."

If the military detected North Korea's cruise missiles, it is likely that reconnaissance aircraft such as Geumgang and Baekdu (RC-800), and Saemae (RF-16) were utilized. The RF-16, nicknamed "Saemae," flies near the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) and Northern Limit Line (NLL), collecting video intelligence related to North Korean forces. The Baekdu reconnaissance aircraft, upgraded in 2017, can capture North Korea's electronic intelligence (Elint) and communications intelligence (Comint), detecting radar operations and wired or wireless communications. The high-altitude unmanned Global Hawk drone does not have signal collection equipment.

Some argue that North Korea's cruise missile trajectories may not have been fully tracked. North Korea is also known to focus on acquiring technology related to missile evasive maneuvers. The "figure-eight flight trajectory" mentioned by the North this time is believed to increase unpredictability, similar to the pull-up maneuver of ballistic missiles, making interception more difficult.

In particular, cruise missiles are launched from ground-based transporter erector launchers (TELs) or naval vessels, flying at low altitudes before striking targets. Because of this, our military's radar network may have failed to detect projectiles moving at altitudes below approximately 500 meters.

A military expert said, "In the case of cruise missiles, it is difficult to identify the launch point, and since they fly at altitudes of 1 to 2 kilometers above the surface, shadow zones caused by the Earth's curvature make it nearly impossible to detect them with radar or military satellites."

Previously, North Korea claimed to have test-launched this missile on the 11th and 12th, flying for 7,580 seconds (126 minutes) and hitting a target 1,500 kilometers away.