[AKYUNG Poll] Why Did Yoon Seok-yeol's Approval Rating Rise Despite His Reserved External Activities?

Choi Jae-hyung's Support Rate in People Power Party Remains at 6.6% Amid Public Attention
Next Presidential Election Suitability: Yoon Seok-youl 27.7%, Lee Jae-myung 26.7%, Lee Nak-yeon 12.7%

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The approval rating of former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, which had been stagnant, has shown signs of recovery. Despite facing consecutive controversies during his public appearances, he gained more support while keeping a low profile. This can be interpreted as influenced more by the ruling party's 'negative exchanges' rather than his own competitiveness. Looking at the poor performance of former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung, who was mentioned as a so-called 'Plan B,' it appears that momentum is building for regime change through former Prosecutor General Yoon.

◆ ‘Myeongnak Battle,’ Yoon Seok-yeol Smiled= Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll from the 21st to the 22nd among 1,024 voters nationwide aged 18 and over (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). In the presidential candidate suitability survey, which asked about candidates from both ruling and opposition parties, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung and former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon both showed declining approval ratings.

In the case of Governor Lee, he faced difficulties after it was revealed that he appeared on a YouTube broadcast run by columnist Hwang Kyo-ik during the Coupang logistics center fire in Icheon, Gyeonggi Province, in June. The fire resulted in casualties, including the death of Fire Captain Kim Dong-sik, who was searching for victims. Both opposition candidates and Democratic Party presidential candidates criticized Governor Lee’s conduct. Reflecting this public sentiment, in a hypothetical one-on-one contest between former Prosecutor General Yoon and Governor Lee, Yoon recorded a 45.5% approval rating, narrowly surpassing Lee’s 40.7% within the margin of error.

Former leader Lee Nak-yeon, who had shown an upward trend in approval ratings after the Democratic Party primary, has been unable to find a breakthrough amid negative controversies. Lee’s campaign experienced turmoil, including a virtual apology after a verbal dispute with Hwang.

Lee Nak-yeon’s poor performance has become an opportunity for former Prosecutor General Yoon. Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter, explained in a radio interview on the 24th, "When Yoon’s approval rating rises, Lee’s falls, and when Yoon’s falls, Lee’s rises." In fact, in the suitability survey mentioning candidates from both ruling and opposition parties, Yoon’s rating increased by 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous survey (June 24-25), while Lee’s dropped by 4.2 percentage points.

Reflecting this trend, unlike the previous three hypothetical one-on-one matchups conducted by Asia Economy and Win-G Korea, this survey showed Yoon leading for the first time with 46.8%, ahead of Governor Lee’s 41.1%.

◆ Public Opinion for Regime Change Seems to Favor Yoon Seok-yeol= Support is strengthening for Yoon as an alternative. Until now, the political sphere had focused on former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung as Yoon’s Plan B. However, Choi, who made a flashy debut attracting public attention, has shown a decline in approval ratings. In the presidential candidate suitability survey, his rating fell 1.5 percentage points from the previous survey to 4.4%.

Particularly noteworthy is the change in public opinion among People Power Party supporters. In this presidential candidate suitability survey, 61.9% of People Power Party supporters backed Yoon. In contrast, only 6.6% supported Choi. This contrasts with the survey conducted on June 24-25, where 51.8% of People Power Party supporters backed Yoon and 11.9% supported Choi. The concentration of support toward Yoon is accelerating.

Especially meaningful is that this trend occurred while Yoon was practically maintaining a ‘low-profile’ stance. Despite a decline in approval ratings due to various controversies, Yoon’s ability to regain support if he manages his messaging suggests a resilience in his recovery.

▶ How the survey was conducted

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy commissioning Win-G Korea Consulting, targeting voters aged 18 and over nationwide from June 21 to 22, with 1,024 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.0%. The method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.