[Choi Min-gyu's Baseball Prism] Korean Baseball Needs a Velocity Revolution

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The South Korean national baseball team finished 4th among six countries at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, failing to win a medal. The term 'crushing defeat' is not appropriate. It simply revealed the current level of Korean professional baseball. In the semifinal against the champion Japan on the 4th, it was commendable that the game was tied 2-2 until the top of the 8th inning. Before the Korea-Japan match, I was worried that Korea might lose by a cold game. Since South Korea won the gold medal at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, world baseball has rapidly changed. Korean baseball has not kept up with that change.

The Japanese national team achieved a 2-0 shutout victory against the United States in the final on the 7th. They brought in Masato Morishita (155), followed by Kodai Senga (159), Hiromi Ito (153), Suguru Iwasaki (146), and Ryoji Kuribayashi (153) on the mound. The numbers in parentheses indicate the highest fastball velocity (km/h) recorded by these players in this season’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB). Except for lefty specialist Iwasaki, all throw fastballs exceeding 150 km/h.

A fastball velocity revolution is currently underway in Japanese baseball. In 2011, the average four-seam fastball velocity in NPB was 141.0 km/h. In 2014, it was about 141.7 km/h. However, last year it increased to nearly 145 km/h. Although some attribute this to changes in measurement methods, the upward trend is clear. Moreover, it seems to be accelerating. In 2016, only two Japanese pitchers in NPB threw fastballs over 157 km/h: Shohei Ohtani, who is now active in Major League Baseball (MLB), and Shintaro Fujinami. In 2019, there were four; last year, eight; and this year, with the season still ongoing, as many as fourteen.

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It’s not just professionals. The pitches of middle and high school baseball pitchers are also getting faster. Roki Sasaki of the Chiba Lotte Marines threw 163 km/h in April 2019 when he was a high school senior. Freelance sports journalist Eiji Yoshizaki said, "When Hayato Terahara threw 155 km/h in 2001, setting a high school record, the whole of Japan was abuzz. Now, that speed has become ordinary." In 2019, at least eight middle school pitchers recorded speeds over 140 km/h. More hard-throwing pitchers are emerging from the amateur ranks and entering the professional leagues, and cases of velocity increasing after joining the pros are also rising. Among the fourteen NPB pitchers who exceeded 157 km/h this year, seven?half?were 25 years old or younger.

Fastball speed is a very useful measure for comparing the level of baseball leagues. When pitchers throw faster, batters must swing faster. Faster swings produce more hard-hit balls, and less skilled defenders are eliminated. In 2006, I asked Lee Seung-yeop, who played for the Yomiuri Giants, about the difference between Korean and Japanese baseball. He said, "The batted balls are generally faster in the infield. I was told I was good at defense in Korea, but it was difficult here."

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The notion that "Japan plays a skillful style of baseball" must now be corrected. The gap in power between Korean and Japanese baseball is widening. The average four-seam fastball velocity in the KBO League increased only 1.3 km/h from 141.0 km/h in 2014 to 142.3 km/h last year. During the same period, NPB saw an increase of 3.3 km/h. The impact of this difference is well illustrated by last year’s KBO League MVP Mel Rojas Jr. Rojas, who is playing for the Hanshin Tigers this year, struggled with a batting average of .098 and appeared in only seventeen games. The biggest reason for his struggles is the hard fastballs in NPB. Against fastballs, he recorded only 4 hits in 23 at-bats (.174 average). From 2017 to 2020 in the KBO League, his batting average against fastballs was over .300 every year.

How did Japanese baseball achieve this velocity improvement? Norifumi Nishio, who analyzes and researches baseball motions at Tsukuba University, cited "the evolution of educational methods and the spread of information" as the most important reasons in a 2019 Asahi Shimbun column.

The origin of the 'velocity revolution' is the United States. Over the past 20 years, the average fastball velocity in MLB has increased by 3.8 mph (6.1 km/h), an unprecedented improvement. Since 2006, MLB has installed Pitch Tracking Systems (PTS) in all stadiums. The physical characteristics of pitches have been measured as data. This combined with scientific training programs based on biomechanical theory has driven explosive increases in velocity. The LA Dodgers now even use equipment to measure players’ biomechanical data at their minor league home stadiums.

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Conservative Japanese baseball also accepted this. Professional teams introduced TrackMan, a PTS, starting in 2016. They adopted new training methods and equipment. The accumulated capabilities of institutions like Tsukuba University, a prestigious sports science school, were significant. A representative of the NPB Orix Buffaloes said, "Some coaches pay out of pocket to take external pitching programs. This is more effective than inviting instructors to the club." Amateur coaches also made efforts. Hiroshi Oshima, author of 'The Origin of Korean Baseball,' explained, "In the past, Japanese coaches emphasized running for pitchers and used experience-based, trial-and-error coaching. Now, the trend is to emphasize weight training and scientific training methods. More coaches encourage young pitchers to throw freely, moving away from a focus on control." Now, not only professionals but also amateur pitchers check their pitches and throwing forms using data and video.

KBO League teams are also adopting PTS. Players like Kim Min-woo of Hanwha and Lim Chan-kyu of LG have been recognized as pitchers who rapidly improved their skills recently by analyzing their pitch characteristics with data and designing their pitches. However, new attempts are not always welcomed. Lotte parted ways with manager Heo Moon-hoe during this season partly due to opposition to the use of pitching programs introduced from the U.S. About ten teams at the university and high school levels have introduced PTS equipment, but utilization remains low.

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Korea is a country that has grown by opening its doors to the world and exchanging ideas. In the past, Korean baseball did not hesitate to accept new things. In the 1960s and 70s, Korean baseball invited Zainichi Korean players to incorporate advanced Japanese baseball. After the launch of professional baseball, Korea began exchanges with MLB and accepted foreign players. The 2008 Beijing Olympic gold medal was a victory of Korean-style 'hybrid baseball' that embraced the strengths of American and Japanese baseball. Now, at least in terms of the indicator 'fastball speed,' it is clear that Korea is lagging behind the global baseball innovation trend.

Professional baseball players, as self-employed individuals, have a strong incentive to improve their skills and earn more money. However, if the potential for skill improvement is small relative to effort and there are risks such as injury, individual players are more likely to choose complacency over improvement. The unprecedented suspension of the pennant race caused by violations of COVID-19 quarantine rules may be evidence that Korean professional baseball is stagnating. Innovation to increase input-output efficiency is necessary. This is also why Korean baseball must no longer fall behind in the 'velocity revolution.'

Director of the Korean Baseball Society