Kim Yo-jong's Statement Variable... Growing Political Controversy Burden on ROK-US Joint Military Exercises

Kim Yo-jong's Statement: Opposition Says "Cannot Stop Joint Exercises by Succumbing to Threats"
US-ROK: "Joint Exercises Are a Decision Between Both Countries"…Ruling Party: "Must Proceed as Scheduled"

[Asia Economy reporters Jeongmin Ryu, military specialist Nakgyu Yang, and Jieun Lee] The 'unexpected variable' of Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party of Korea, has expanded the controversy surrounding the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises into the political arena. The Moon Jae-in administration plans to decide the methods, timing, and content of the joint exercises in consultation with the U.S. government, but the controversy over 'Kim Yo-jong's orders' has emerged as a variable.

This is because if the government postpones or scales down the joint exercises, it could lead to political controversy over whether it is an action taken out of consideration for the North. Earlier, on the 1st, Deputy Director Kim stated in a statement released through the Korean Central News Agency that "military exercises conducted at an important turning point could further cloud the future of inter-Korean relations," and said she would closely watch the South's decision.

The Blue House, which had tried to create a 'thawing mode' by revealing the exchange of letters between the South and North Korean leaders and the reconnection of communication lines, is now in a difficult situation. On the 2nd, Tae Young-ho, a member of the People Power Party, warned via a Facebook message that "if we succumb to the threats of the Kim siblings and stop the joint exercises, we will not only lose leadership in the immediate inter-Korean relations but also become hostages forever bearing North Korea's nuclear weapons."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The South Korea-U.S. military authorities are preparing for the Crisis Management Staff Training (CMST), a preliminary exercise scheduled from the 10th to the 13th, and the second half joint command post training (21-2 CCPT) from the 16th to the 26th. However, the announcement of the confirmed training schedule is being delayed amid changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

There is also a possibility that the announcement will be made just before the official training schedule in a form that significantly reduces the scale. The Ministry of National Defense announced the training plan on the 7th of March, just one day before the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises. The basic response policy of the Blue House and the government is a low-key strategy.

The Blue House has not issued any particular response since Deputy Director Kim's statement. The reason the Blue House is careful not to escalate the controversy is closely related to the tug-of-war surrounding inter-Korean relations. Rather than being swept up in the North's political calculations, it is a strategic move to lead discussions on the progress of inter-Korean relations according to our own blueprint.

A Blue House official said on the 2nd, regarding the Blue House senior secretaries and aides meeting chaired by President Moon Jae-in, "The message will include the COVID-19 quarantine situation and the Korean athletes' good performance at the Tokyo Olympics," adding, "There will likely be no mention of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises."

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will also convey the government's position through announcements by the Ministry of Unification and the Ministry of National Defense without separate remarks. In this regard, Lee Jong-joo, spokesperson for the Ministry of Unification, said at a briefing that day, "The South Korea-U.S. joint exercises should never become a trigger for military tension on the Korean Peninsula," and added, "We will consistently strive to respond wisely and flexibly."

The government maintains the basic principle that the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises are a decision matter between South Korea and the U.S. The U.S. Department of Defense stated on the 1st (local time), "We do not comment on North Korea's position," and "The joint exercises are a decision made by both South Korea and the U.S."

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said, "North Korea has always demanded the suspension of joint exercises, but ultimately the decision is made by South Korea and the U.S.," and predicted, "The schedule will proceed as planned, but considering the COVID-19 situation, the duration or scale will be reduced."

Song Young-gil, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, also said at the highest council meeting on the 2nd, "(The South Korea-U.S. joint exercises) have no choice but to proceed as scheduled." Song said, "It is not a hostile exercise that Deputy Director Kim was concerned about, but a defensive exercise for maintaining peace," explaining his position.